Decay watch: February 9
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 9 Feb 1999 22:19:50 +0000
Today's SpaceCom decay notices:
Object Notice issued Predicted decay
UTC UTC
#22584 = GPS 2-19 r2 Feb 9 13:55 Feb 10 13:50 +-15h
#16187 = Molniya 1-65 Feb 9 06:42 Feb 13 03:31 +-2d
#19771 = Gorizont 17 aux motor Feb 8 08:28 Feb 14 23:14 +-4d
The latest elsets for these:
Molniya 1-65 8019 x 72 km
1 16187U 85099A 99040.74272343 .53163547 25343-5 86076-3 0 2425
2 16187 61.6966 132.6505 3811818 261.8941 183.6601 8.15803259 97824
Gorizont 17 aux motor 849 x 142 km
1 19771U 89004E 99040.53215764 .04441734 90057-5 63400-3 0 4704
2 19771 46.3920 227.3274 0513718 1.1371 359.0546 15.23501957162162
GPS 2-19 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 473 x 131 km
1 22584U 93017D 99040.55145352 .12649237 13409-5 57705-3 0 2113
2 22584 34.4567 128.3720 0256437 59.0578 303.5119 15.90096846136433
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My own SatEvo predictions:
# Designation Name Predicted decay (UTC)
22584 93- 17 D GPS 2-19 r2 February 10.63 (15:10 +-5h)
16187 85- 99 A Molniya 1-65 February 13.5 +-0.8d
19771 89- 4 E Gorizont 17 aux mot February 15.8 +-1.3d
The above elset for #22584, the GPS 2-19 r2, has it running 16 seconds
early on yesterday's prediction. My new analysis has it decaying on the
southbound approach to a daylight equator crossing near 68 deg W
longitude at 15:14 UTC. Predicted elsets:
GPS 2-19 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 420 x 129 km
1 22584U 93017D 99040.86429331 .17236300 42279-1 62413-3 0 92111
2 22584 34.4546 126.1666 0218937 62.2667 299.9371 16.00122565136486
GPS 2-19 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 383 x 127 km
1 22584U 93017D 99041.05100792 .20162366 64333-1 63255-3 0 92114
2 22584 34.4532 124.8345 0192470 64.2052 297.7681 16.07065816136519
GPS 2-19 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 322 x 125 km
1 22584U 93017D 99041.29854411 .27573315 15404+0 65693-3 0 92112
2 22584 34.4506 123.0454 0148936 66.8085 294.7534 16.18617674136559
GPS 2-19 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 226 x 120 km
1 22584U 93017D 99041.54385981 .58683405 13205+1 75369-3 0 92116
2 22584 34.4466 121.2361 0081028 69.4415 291.4261 16.37212524136596
GPS 2-19 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 180 x 116 km
1 22584U 93017D 99041.60461037 1.14414453 85571+1 90069-3 0 92117
2 22584 34.4448 120.7786 0048436 70.1073 290.4140 16.46704567136606
The latest elset for the Molniya shows it to be 4.4 minutes late on
yesterday's prediction. New prediction:
Molniya 1-65 7546 x 79 km
1 16187U 85099A 99041.06196394 .48985175 38346-1 11496-2 0 92420
2 16187 61.6963 132.2721 3663420 261.9436 55.8210 8.43982903 97855
Molniya 1-65 7175 x 79 km
1 16187U 85099A 99041.29612462 .51820154 42457-1 11590-2 0 92426
2 16187 61.6961 131.9794 3545873 261.9819 57.1315 8.67576071 97879
Molniya 1-65 6629 x 79 km
1 16187U 85099A 99041.63548441 .56515300 50011-1 11750-2 0 92421
2 16187 61.6957 131.5305 3365015 262.0407 59.1519 9.04297339 97902
Molniya 1-65 6096 x 79 km
1 16187U 85099A 99041.96105304 .61850464 59729-1 11936-2 0 92424
2 16187 61.6954 131.0690 3178075 262.1011 61.2454 9.42782815 97936
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/