Decay watch: February 11
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 11 Feb 1999 20:28:47 +0000
There are new SpaceCom decay notices for both current decayers:
Object Notice issued Predicted decay
UTC UTC
#16187 = Molniya 1-65 Feb 11 10:12 Feb 13 08:19 +-1d
#19771 = Gorizont 17 aux motor Feb 11 15:15 Feb 15 11:49 +-18h
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The latest elset for Molniya 1-65 ...
Molniya 1-65 4872 x 64 km
1 16187U 85099A 99042.66642333 .94619887 00000-0 53692-3 0 2657
2 16187 61.7012 129.8954 2717675 262.4629 66.3598 10.43486690 98001
shows it 2.3 minutes early on yesterday's SatEvo prediction. I now
predict decay for February 13.49 (11:53 UTC +-9 hours) close to perigee
near 61 deg S, 80 deg E. New predicted elsets (with perigee adjusted
upwards):
Molniya 1-65 4191 x 75 km
1 16187U 85099A 99043.03985387 .90872580 13375+0 10455-2 0 92651
2 16187 61.7007 129.2081 2417410 262.5526 69.5953 11.05696182 98043
Molniya 1-65 3682 x 75 km
1 16187U 85099A 99043.30578176 1.03181372 17782+0 10816-2 0 92659
2 16187 61.7003 128.6702 2184000 262.6228 72.2274 11.57141618 98074
Molniya 1-65 3168 x 75 km
1 16187U 85099A 99043.55969577 1.19458882 25432+0 10936-2 0 92659
2 16187 61.6920 128.1104 1933177 262.6959 75.0587 12.13433062 98101
Molniya 1-65 2638 x 75 km
1 16187U 85099A 99043.80155631 1.42305060 39328+0 11575-2 0 92659
2 16187 61.6576 127.5246 1656729 262.7735 78.1812 12.76339619 98136
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The latest elset for the aux motor is:
Gorizont 17 aux motor 736 x 124 km
1 19771U 89004E 99042.61638292 .05877425 00000-0 24554-3 0 4814
2 19771 46.3840 216.0621 0449198 11.6046 349.5401 15.45483752162552
SatEvo still suggests that this will decay at February 16.0 +-0.9 day.
Prediction:
Gorizont 17 aux motor 708 x 124 km
1 19771U 89004E 99043.00363638 .06320163 29255-2 25219-3 0 94813
2 19771 46.3826 213.9278 0430187 13.7384 347.3968 15.50240564162615
Gorizont 17 aux motor 670 x 123 km
1 19771U 89004E 99043.51809350 .06822723 36305-2 25395-3 0 94813
2 19771 46.3806 211.0688 0403330 16.5969 344.6860 15.56992817162697
Gorizont 17 aux motor 628 x 123 km
1 19771U 89004E 99044.03022873 .07452375 46426-2 25649-3 0 94818
2 19771 46.3784 208.1939 0374382 19.4716 341.9215 15.64290342162770
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/