Decay watch: February 15
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 15 Feb 1999 21:13:53 +0000
The solar radiation energy at 10.7 cm reached a mean value of 200
yesterday, the highest during the current solar cycle and for
at least 5 years. This flux (its units are 10**-22 W m**-2 Hz**-1
if anyone is interested) is a widely used indicator of upper-
atmospheric temperature and density, and its high level implies that
satellites may be experiencing exceptionally high drag rates at
present. This comes after a spell of relatively low drag during
which decay dates had tended to slip. Increased drag, of course,
means that we can expect objects to run early against predictions
from elsets more than a day or two old.
I also notice that the daily sunspot number reached 200 yesterday, again
the highest for more than five years.
Two new decayers (one already down) from this morning's launch of
Telstar 6.
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Object: #19771 = 89- 4 E = Gorizont 17 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 11 15:15 Feb 15 11:49 +-18h 46.4 N 41.6 W
SpaceCom Feb 12 04:41 Feb 15 05:01 +-2d 42.6 S 106.5 W
SpaceCom Feb 13 05:45 Feb 15 05:59 +-1d 27.8 N 111.7 E
SpaceCom Feb 14 08:49 Feb 15 08:19 +-17h 13.2 S 86.8 W
SpaceCom Feb 14 20:19 Feb 15 07:39 +-7h 0.8 N 115.4 E
SpaceCom Feb 15 02:33 Feb 15 07:22 +-3h 42.4 N 60.1 E
SpaceCom Feb 15 04:52 Feb 15 07:22 +-3h 42.4 N 60.1 E
SpaceCom Feb 15 11:49 Feb 15 07:22 +-3h 42.4 N 60.1 E
SatEvo Feb 11 20:15 Feb 16.0 +-0.9d
SatEvo Feb 12 20:50 Feb 15 11:29 +-15h 22 N 101 W
SatEvo Feb 13 16:40 Feb 15 06:56 +-8h 24 N 29 W
SatEvo Feb 14 17:00 Feb 15 11:20 +-5h 10 N 112 W
SatEvo Feb 15 19:30 Feb 15 06:54 +-3h 10 N 44 W
Final elset:
Gorizont 17 aux motor 302 x 129 km
1 19771U 89004E 99046.04078946 .27796947 12456-4 76635-3 0 5047
2 19771 46.3400 196.4081 0131316 32.2990 328.5906 16.21574652163027
Note: Against my yesterday's prediction, this was running 50 seconds
early at the epoch of the final elset some six hours prior to its decay.
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Object: #13103 = 82- 6 C = OPS 2849 deb
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 12 13:04 Feb 19 10:40 +-4d 54.5 S 91.1 E
SpaceCom Feb 14 22:09 Feb 18 19:47 +-2d 33.5 S 36.1 W
SatEvo Feb 12 19:40 Feb 21.1 +-3d
Note: Still no further elsets since that for 99041.17
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Object: #25627 = 99- 5 B = Telstar 6 Proton rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 15 07:36 Feb 25 20:18 +-6d 51.6 N 158.7 E
SpaceCom Feb 15 10:26 Feb 20 21:45 +-3d 10.2 S 88.2 W
SpaceCom Feb 15 18:35 Feb 17 03:06 +-20h 10.5 N 159.6 W
SatEvo Feb 15 21:00 Feb 16 23:21 +-6h 19 S 70 E
Current elset:
Telstar 6 Proton r 212 x 153 km
1 25627U 99005B 99046.69873914 .03415912 12203-4 29104-3 0 76
2 25627 51.5982 229.3832 0045106 274.2454 85.3420 16.33803576 78
SatEvo prediction:
Telstar 6 Proton r 202 x 149 km
1 25627U 99005B 99047.00432344 .04449995 12421-1 26362-3 0 90070
2 25627 51.5975 227.6666 0040459 275.5294 84.0091 16.36257910 122
Telstar 6 Proton r 190 x 145 km
1 25627U 99005B 99047.30941265 .06098246 26059-1 23082-3 0 90079
2 25627 51.5966 225.9461 0034733 276.8165 82.7885 16.39414390 176
Telstar 6 Proton r 177 x 139 km
1 25627U 99005B 99047.55299064 .09099632 66777-1 21104-3 0 90076
2 25627 51.5956 224.5659 0028501 277.8490 81.8275 16.43000762 214
Telstar 6 Proton r 152 x 129 km
1 25627U 99005B 99047.79587646 .22895811 55578+0 22204-3 0 90073
2 25627 51.5938 223.1803 0018259 278.8857 80.9075 16.49611178 254
Telstar 6 Proton r 139 x 122 km
1 25627U 99005B 99047.85640122 .46013287 26053+1 27548-3 0 90077
2 25627 51.5929 222.8323 0013079 279.1460 80.7059 16.53405194 261
Note: Eclipse entry occurs while southbound near 38 deg S latitude at
~20h local time, with eclipse exit near 5 deg S while northbound
before dawn.
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Object: #25626 = 99- 5 C = Telstar 6 Proton platform
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 15 11:11 Feb 15 21:01 +-7h 40.8 S 86.3 E
SpaceCom Feb 15 15:23 Feb 15 19:55 +-3h 25.2 N 168.0 E
SpaceCom Feb 15 17:53 Feb 15 19:46 +-2h 3.9 S 145.4 E
SpaceCom Feb 15 19:54 Feb 15 19:43 +-36m 12.8 S 138.9 E
SatEvo Feb 15 20:50 Feb 15 19:25 +-90m 45 S 100 E
Final elset:
Tlstr 6 Proton plat 173 x 148 km
1 25628U 99005C 99046.69853579 .25796969 12458-4 98542-3 0 74
2 25628 51.5902 229.3814 0019311 271.0452 88.6462 16.41911852 82
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Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/