Re: Decay watch: February 17

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 17 Feb 1999 20:52:41 +0000

Since my posting earlier this UK evening, SpaceCom/OIG have released a
few more widely-spaced elsets for the OPS 2849 deb which, despite its
name, may be a visible decayer.

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Object: #13103 = 82- 6 C = OPS 2849 deb

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Feb 12 13:04     Feb 19 10:40 +-4d        54.5 S    91.1 E
SpaceCom   Feb 14 22:09     Feb 18 19:47 +-2d        33.5 S    36.1 W
SpaceCom   Feb 15 20:59     Feb 18 21:26 +-2d        74.8 S    84.4 W
SpaceCom   Feb 16 20:55     Feb 18 20:46 +-1d        82.3 N    29.6 E

SatEvo     Feb 12 19:40     Feb 21.1 +-3d
SatEvo     Feb 17 20:35     Feb 18 11:32 +-10h        0.0      88.5 E

Current elset:
OPS 2849 deb                                     211 x 202 km
1 13103U 82006C   99048.19336795  .03619578  24952-5  13147-2 0   644
2 13103  97.4693 230.8483 0006940 279.2000  80.8676 16.24757471 70810

SatEvo predicted elsets:
OPS 2849 deb                                     192 x 185 km
1 13103U 82006C   99048.86951861  .06973279  32568-1  13739-2 0 90643
2 13103  97.4669 231.6346 0005167 276.4308  83.5104 16.31653791 70926
OPS 2849 deb                                     183 x 177 km
1 13103U 82006C   99049.05335261  .09357306  52060-1  13750-2 0 90647
2 13103  97.4659 231.8499 0004476 275.6723  84.2767 16.34623626 70953
OPS 2849 deb                                     166 x 162 km
1 13103U 82006C   99049.29782367  .18603538  31360+0  13859-2 0 90645
2 13103  97.4637 232.1379 0003204 274.6574  85.3060 16.40773627 70997
OPS 2849 deb                                     158 x 155 km
1 13103U 82006C   99049.35876726  .27451761  75318+0  12028-2 0 90642
2 13103  97.4629 232.2102 0002697 274.4027  85.5665 16.43500053 71009
OPS 2849 deb                                     145 x 143 km
1 13103U 82006C   99049.41958025  .63024452  44460+1  10501-2 0 90644
2 13103  97.4615 232.2826 0001886 274.1473  85.8312 16.48352166 71016

Note: I place decay at a northbound equator crossing SE of India but the
near-circular highly-inclined  orbit and the (still) large uncertainty
in time mean that it could fall almost anywhere.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/