Decay watch: February 25
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 25 Feb 1999 21:17:23 +0000
To close the book on the Molniya...
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Object: #16683 = 86- 31 A = Molniya 3-28
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 24 03:46 Feb 24 18:56 +-9h 30.5 S 93.8 W
SpaceCom Feb 24 12:24 Feb 24 22:49 +-6h 41.2 S 19.6 W
SpaceCom Feb 24 16:36 Feb 24 22:46 +-4h 49.0 S 29.1 W
SpaceCom Feb 24 21:05 Feb 24 22:54 +-2h 27.0 S 8.5 W
SpaceCom Feb 25 00:39 Feb 24 23:54 +-2h 32.5 S 167.7 W
SatEvo Feb 24 08:55 Feb 24 20:51 +-5h 61.1 S 62.5 W
SatEvo Feb 24 18:50 Feb 24 23:47 +-2h 13.9 S 178.9 W
SatEvo Feb 24 18:50 Feb 24 23:48 +-1h 17.4 S 177.1 W
Final elset:
Molniya 3-28 906 x 74 km
1 16683U 86031A 99055.85001560 .99999999 65769-5 77083-3 0 5629
2 16683 61.4566 145.1073 0605406 265.1156 202.9070 15.25338176 94747
Note: The final elset above has it running 7 seconds late against the
previous prediction I posted here, at a time when the orbital period was
decreasing by almost 2 minutes per orbit. Like SpaceCom, I place decay
two orbits after the final elset, following a southbound equator
crossing over the Pacific. However, there is a chance that it could have
expired near the preceding perigee at 22:36 and I am sure that it could
not have survived the following perigee at about 00:04. My predicted
elset for its last orbit:
Molniya 3-28 391 x 73 km
1 16683U 86031A 99055.95775679 6.36400244 48527+2 14702-2 0 95521
2 16683 61.3908 144.6843 0240903 263.0608 94.1931 16.15480248 94768
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Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/