Decay watch: 2000 Feb 2 19:30 UTC

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Feb 02 2000 - 12:04:11 PST

  • Next message: Leo Barhorst: "Obs Feb 02"

    #26068 = 00- 05 B = Progress M1-1 Soyuz r
    
    My prediction is for this decay to occur at Feb 2 22:21 +-3h near 30.2
    N, 152.8 E, which is over the NE Pacific, E of Japan. I had delayed
    posting this prediction in the hope that later elsets would appear. In
    fact, no elsets have been issued for 10 hours and I fear that SpaceCom
    is again withholding them until after the decay (I hope I am proved
    wrong!). My prediction has the decay soon after the northbound equator
    crossing given by the final SatEvo-predicted elset:
    
    PrgM1-1 Soyuz r  6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       110 x 108 km
    1 26068U 00005B   00033.92464380 2.65143656  50000+2  58653-3 0 90094
    2 26068  51.6170 233.3127 0001912  43.3881 316.6267 16.61574900   241
    
    If it survives longer, it would continue over the USA from Seattle,
    Washington, at 22:37 UTC to Key West, Florida, at 22:47. On the next
    rev, it would cross the SW USA from Sacramento, California, at about
    00:08 to Tucson, Arizona, at 00:11. SpaceCom's forecast, issued at
    17:24, is for decay at Feb 2 23:30 +-3h at 43.6N, 173.0 E, over the N
    Pacific.
    
    
    #22702 = 93- 42 C = GPS 2-21 r2 (PAM-D)
    
    SpaceCom has issued a decay warning for this, predicting decay at Feb 5
    21:43 +-2d. I get Feb 5 21:09 +-21h. This enters eclipse while
    northbound near 31 deg N at ~19:30 local time and leaves eclipse while
    southbound near 14 deg S at ~05:00 local time.
    
    
    See http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for more details.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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