#26068 = 00- 05 B = Progress M1-1 Soyuz r I think that this decayed at Feb 2 22:13 UTC +-40m near 5.4 N, 131.9 E. SpaceCom estimates Feb 2 22:17 +-2h near 6.9 N, 133.1 E. The final elset... PrgM1-1 Soyuz r 6.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 d 15 150 x 142 km 1 26068U 00005B 00033.80364115 .15648193 12655-4 27013-3 0 112 2 26068 51.6224 234.0160 0005759 61.6978 298.5011 16.47552126 222 ... appeared only after this had decayed and is the only one with an epoch during the final 14 hours of this object's life. This may be further evidence that SpaceCom is censoring the release of near-decay elsets. In fact, this kept very close to the SatEvo predictions I had posted earlier in the day. The final elset showed it running only 5 seconds early on the prediction I had made six hours earlier, bringing the decay only slightly earlier to the vicinity of a northbound equator crossing over Indonesia. SpaceCom's final notice reports an almost identical conclusion. SatEvo does not give me a predicted elset for that node, but the one before is: PrgM1-1 Soyuz r 6.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 d 15 137 x 132 km 1 26068U 00005B 00033.86418961 .44477333 23798+1 36836-3 0 90113 2 26068 51.6213 233.6689 0004492 61.9570 298.0884 16.51837814 234 Given SpaceCom's decay time/uncertainty and the fact that it has not released a further elset, I think the rocket is unlikely to have survived to cross the USA from Seattle to Key West some 30 minutes later. #22702 = 93- 42 C = GPS 2-21 r2 (PAM-D) I now predict this decay for Feb 6 03:17 +-18h, suggesting a six hour slip since yesterday. On the other hand, SpaceCom's latest estimate is for decay at Feb 5 19:55 +-2d. The latest elset is: GPS 2-21 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 3.4 580 x 137 km 1 22702U 93042C 00034.21750377 .06926384 10969-7 55398-3 0 6901 2 22702 34.5067 358.5665 0328898 233.3345 123.7023 15.70068546152322 See http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for more details. Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750 Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Feb 03 2000 - 01:42:10 PST