Re: USA 193...............Down under !

From: Marco Langbroek (
Date: Sat Feb 02 2008 - 17:25:13 UTC

  • Next message: David Brierley: "DMB Obs February 2"

    Matt Considine schreef:
    > I understand all the reasons why a reentry point and possible landing 
    > zone cannot be determined until close to reentry time.  And I see the 
    > output of SatEvo can estimate the decay.  Is there a program that is 
    > like SatEvo or can take SatEvo's out and estimate (with a lot of 
    > simplifying assumptions), where it will reenter?
    In principle, you can take the propagated last orbit that SatEvo predicts, plus 
    the decay time it predicts, and input both in a program like Orbitron to see 
    where the satellite would be at that moment.
    In reality, even very close to decay the uncertainties will probably remain too 
    high to really say where it will come down. A 15 minute uncertainty (and quite 
    probably, the uncertainty in this case will be larger than that!) already 
    translates to an uncertainty of about 6800 km (about 4300 miles). You are 
    speaking of whole continents then.
    - Marco
    Dr Marco Langbroek  -  SatTrackCam Leiden, the Netherlands.
    Cospar 4353 (Leiden):   52.15412 N, 4.49081 E (WGS84), +0 m ASL
    Cospar 4354 (De Wilck): 52.11685 N, 4.56016 E (WGS84), -2 m ASL
    Station (b)log:
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