TJM obs of 2008 Feb 10 UTC; USA 193 elements

From: Ted Molczan (ssl2molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Sun Feb 10 2008 - 14:21:48 UTC

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    Alberto Rango and I have made new observations. Alberto's are here:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/Feb-2008/0168.html
    
    I awoke to a clearing sky, but with considerable haze and thin cloud, and
    frequent strong wind gusts. Wind chill was about -20 C. I was not out very long,
    so the cold was not a problem. My 25x100 binoculars enabled me to just see the
    fainter of the two reference stars of my first position, which was about
    magnitude 8.3. In clear conditions, I can easily see to about mag 9.5.
    
    29651 06 057A   2701 P 20080210110228330 17 25 1425518-243357 18 S
    29651 06 057A   2701 F 20080210110323370 17 25 1550959-333763 37 S
    
    IOD format: http://www.satobs.org/position/IODformat.html
    
    Site 2701: 43.68764 N, 79.39243 W, 230 m
    
    Here are updated elements:
    
    USA 193          5.0  2.5  0.0  4.3 v                    256 X 269 km
    1 29651U 06057A   08041.43702418  .00160759  00000-0  24166-3 0    06
    2 29651  58.4822  74.1062 0009451  64.5704 295.6373 16.04004208    09
    Arc 2008 Feb 06.22	- 10.46, WRMS residuals = 0.013 deg
    
    Mean rate of altitude decrease over the past four days was about 890 m/d (metres
    per day).
    
    Definition of 2-line elements format:
    
    http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/sightings/SSapplications/Post/JavaSSOP/SSOP
    _Help/tle_def.html
    
    Using the above elements and a 10.7 cm solar flux of 71, Satevo v0.51's estimate
    of the date of decay from orbit remains 2008 March 19. The uncertainty is at
    least one week.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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