David Brierley and Jean-Paul Cornec have reported new observations from Europe: http://satobs.org/seesat/Feb-2008/0395.html http://satobs.org/seesat/Feb-2008/0396.html The object was nearly 3 s early relative my day-old elements, confirming my suspicion that the decay rate was too low. I have produced a preliminary update, for the benefit of observers further west, who will have passes in a few hours. If further observations are reported, I will update the analysis. USA 193 5.0 2.5 0.0 4.3 v 245 X 258 km 1 29651U 06057A 08050.77400802 .00256405 00000-0 29678-3 0 02 2 29651 58.5208 31.8067 0009932 58.7181 301.4893 16.08191854 02 Arc 2008 Feb 18.04 - 19.78, WRMS residuals = 0.027 deg Predictions tonight should be accurate to within a few seconds of time, and close to the predicted track. Rate of altitude decrease is about 1.4 km/d (kilometres per day). Using the above elements and a 10.7 cm solar flux of 71, Satevo v0.51 estimates decay from orbit on 2008 March 13. The uncertainty is at least several days. Definition of 2-line elements format: http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/sightings/SSapplications/Post/JavaSSOP/SSOP _Help/tle_def.html Ted Molczan ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe/Unsubscribe info, Frequently Asked Questions, SeeSat-L archive: http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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