RE: Possible Observation of USA 193 Debris

From: Ted Molczan (ssl2molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Wed Feb 27 2008 - 02:07:44 UTC

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    Christian Kjaernet wrote: 
    
    > I was out last night looking for debris again with no luck. 
    > Target star this time was 74 Orioni (SAO 95476) at mag 5.03, 
    > which the debris should pass over at about 17:54. 
    > Unfortunately a light cirrus layer drifted in half an hour 
    > before and I almost could not align the scope. After a 
    > succesful alignment I was barely able to see the star and as 
    > I said, no debris.
    > 
    > Maybe outside of the field of view of 50.3 arcminutes, maybe 
    > too faint, or maybe not the correct identification/TLE at all.
    > 
    > Tonight is forecast rain, but better weather later in the 
    > week. Will keep trying.
    
    I have run the first 17 pieces of debris against your observation of Feb 24, and
    found a pretty good match in 06057Q / 32514. It passed 3.5 s earlier than you
    reported, and about 0.22 deg higher, so not as far below 13 Monoceros as you
    observed. 
    
    A 10 percent uncertainty in rate of decay results in about a 17 s uncertainty
    going back two days from the epoch to your observation, but the agreement seems
    quite good. Observing it again, would confirm that it is bright enough to be
    seen, which would increase confidence in the identification.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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