Re: ZQ-3 R/B near re-entry

From: John A. Dormer 2 via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_lists.seesatmail.org>
Date: Mon, 2 Feb 2026 14:17:50 -0600
This is *not* an embarrassment you need to endure. You're in good 
company. From 
https://map.nrl.navy.mil/map/pub/nrl/NRLMSIS/NRLMSISE-00/NRLMSISE-00_jgra16630.pdf:

    "[ 57 ] The model accounts for the approximate spheroidal
    symmetry of the Earth and the atmosphere by incorporating
    a gravity field and an effective Earth radius which are both
    latitude-dependent and by using spherical harmonics to
    represent spatial variability of the key parameters that define
    temperature and species number density profiles."

I didn't know about this model until a few weeks ago, and it fills in a 
lot of difficulties seen when using Standard Atmosphere models applied 
to LEO. These are some less-heavy documents about the model:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NRLMSISE-00

https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/models/NRLMSIS~00/

     A_J

On 31-Jan-26 16:54, Robert McNaught via Seesat-l wrote:
> Thanks for your summary Marco. The breakup up or payload hypotheses 
> make sense for the double TIP.
>
> For a few years I've been hoping to get a near reentry situation of an 
> eccentric orbit with low perigee near my latitude. This would 
> potentially give multiple opportunities to observe the object ablating 
> but not fully reenter. In the case of ZQ-3 RB, the perigee has been 
> drifting north due to precession from the southern apex of 57S on Jan 
> 10 and was at 43S on Jan 29. The last orbit shows a jump to 38S as the 
> drift becomes more stocastic due to drag at perigee rather than the 
> the gravitational effect of the Earth's oblateness.
>
> I have an embarrassing question which I never really investigated 
> properly. The standard equation for perigee and apogee subtracts the 
> Earth's equatorial radius to give height. For the final orbit this was 
> 102 x 211 km. However, the height above the spheroid for perigee at 
> 38S would be 111 x 219 km. I always assumed the atmospheric density is 
> not dependent on latitude for a given height above the spheroid, but 
> is that true? If true, a truly circular orbit would experience maximum 
> drag on crossing the equator.
>
> In the NEA realm, tangential "reentries" have been observed on a 
> number of occasions, although in these cases with hyperbolic 
> geocentric orbits. There are thus thus asteroids in solar orbit with 
> ablated surfaces. A stable orientation during "reentry" would produce 
> an asteroid with one ablated hemisphere and the other unablated.
>
> Cheers, Rob
>
> On 31/01/2026 18:25, Marco Langbroek via Seesat-l wrote:
>>
>> Blog post on this:
>>
>> https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2026/01/you-only-die-twice-redux-unusual-and.html 
>>
>>
>> - Marco
>>
>> Op 31-1-2026 om 17:58 schreef Marco Langbroek via Seesat-l:
>>>
>>> Hi Rob a.o.,
>>>
>>> I just saw this, and never seen it before. Very odd!
>>>
>>> One explanation could be the following:
>>>
>>> The ZQ-3 RB reentry was from a somewhat eccentric orbit (more so 
>>> than your average reentry. The last available orbit was 211 x 102 km.
>>>
>>> The 12:39 UTC first "reentry" point could be where the R/B started 
>>> to ablate and fragment near perigee. One relatively massive fragment 
>>> however might have survived perigee and finally reentered half an 
>>> orbital revolution later at 13:43 UTC.
>>>
>>> I wonder whether that fragment was the dummy payload, still attached 
>>> to the upper stage, that might have come loose during the first 
>>> "reentry" moment and survived, for example because it was a massive 
>>> dummy mass with relatively large weight to size, while the rest of 
>>> the R/B (the R/B proper) reentered at the 12:30 first reentry point.
>>>
>>> Just an hypothesis, I am open to other explanations (including one 
>>> of the two being an "artifact"/"ghost detection").
>>>
>>> - Marco
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> Seesat-l mailing list
>> https://lists.seesatmail.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Seesat-l mailing list
> https://lists.seesatmail.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l

_______________________________________________
Seesat-l mailing list
https://lists.seesatmail.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
Received on Mon Feb 02 2026 - 12:17:56 UTC

This archive was generated by hypermail 2.4.0 : Mon Feb 02 2026 - 20:17:56 UTC