WARNING: POSSIBLE ACCELERATION
Kurt Jonckheere (kjonckheere@unicall.be)
Sun, 7 Jan 96 14:59:26 +0000 (GMT)
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WARNING: SUDDEN ORBITAL ELEMENT CHANGE,
ACCELERATION POSSIBLE
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OBJECTS TO BE OBSERVED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE:
18096 87- 49 B 19257 88- 53 B
19036 88- 29 B 22007 92- 36 B
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When I compared the latest elementfile from Ted Molczan with those from
the end of 1995 the following objects had a jump in Mean Motion:
- 18096 87- 49 B
- 19257 88- 53 B , this one had a jump in Perigee Height of 4 km!
Both objects are in the same class: Russian rockets with i=74
and perigee of 800 km. During checking the PPASarchive I found that
a lot of those rockets already had accelerated! (see below)
When I examined the orbital elements of those objects, I also
noticed that 19036 = 88- 29 B had a jump in Mean Motion at the
end of Septembre 1995. [Last observation: Mike McCants on 23
Septembre 1995: Steady, mag +5]
Until now, most objects accelerated only one time. In next month
we can see if multiple accelerations might happen.
The following table contains the latest SL-8 Rockets with Perigee
and Apogee between 750 and 800 km and 74.0 or 74.1 degrees inclination.
[The list is much longer..., starts from 1967 on, but I only checked
the recent ones because I only have elements from 1992 on and lack of
time to test them all]
Accelerated? + date MMjump? + date
16682 86-030B Y
16864 86-052B N
16953 86-070B Y
17304 87-006B Y 94-2 Y 94-2
18096 87-049B Y between 94-7 & 95-2 Y 94-10 , 96-1
18586 87-098B Y 93-12? ?
19039 88-029B ? Y 92-10 , 95-9
19257 88-053B ? between 93-9 & 94-4 ? 96-1
19770 89-005B N N
20433 90-004B Y between 94-11& 95-3 Y 95-1
21015 90-111B Y 95-4 Y small jump 95-4
21419 91-041B Y between 95-5 & 95-8 Y between 95-5 & 95-8
22081 92-053B Y between 94-1 & 94-7 Y 94-4
22676 93-036B Y 95-1 Y ?
The table also indicates if the flashing period of the rocket
decreased and the approximate date of it. Because of lack of
observations, the time of accelerations is mostly not known very accurate.
Most of the time the rocket is Steady before it accelerates and thus
not observed very regularly.
The last column indicates if there is an jump in Mean Motion and the date
of it.
As you can see, about 70 percent of the objects in this class had an
acceleration!! Most of them have a corresponding acceleration.
So in almost all cases, there must be residual fuel in the rocket.
This corrosive fuel makes small holes in the rocket and can thus escape
from the rocket and causing the rocket to accelerate. [This is what
we think about it. Other people with other ideas??]
I don't think there is another group in which almost all object
accelerate. The dimensioning of the rocket or fuel must be somewhat
special...
Thanks to Ted Molczan for the elements and all observers for their
observations. Also thanks to Paul Maley and Rainer Kracht for
observing 92-36 B which also showed a change in orbital elements
and acceleration of the rocket. Don't forget this one too!
happy observing,
Kurt Jonckheere (kjonckheere@unicall.be)
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