Re: Iridium Flare predictions limitation or bug?

From: Robin R. Wier (
Date: Sat Jan 15 2000 - 18:34:18 PST

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    	First I assume you are referring to the Heavens-Above site? If so, for
    me, it's a good question.
    	Several months ago I gad a similar experience. I assumed it to be
    caused by too much tequila on my part. I will try too reload flare
    predictions as the predicted time approaches and see when the
    "disappearance" occurs. This may take a few days.
    	Surely such a sophisticated site should allow a simple person to come
    home from work, check for flare passes, and run outside, just barely
    catching the view.
    Starparty wrote:
    > I checked Chris Peat's Iridium Flare predictions page this morning and my
    > location did have a prediction for this evening. About 15 minutes before the
    > predicted pass, I got back on that page to double check the details of the
    > pass. The prediction no longer showed in the list for my location.
    > Thankfully I had the detail page from this morning in my browser's history
    > list and I went to that page and I got the details and decided to try to
    > view it anyway. I'm very glad I did... the pass was indeed visible as had
    > been predicted earlier and it was the -8 magnitude that was expected... what
    > a sight!
    > Here's my question. Why did the pass prediction disappear? I originally
    > thought it might be the result of an updated elset, but the pass did occur
    > exactly as predicted. Does the prediction software used for this site have a
    > "blind spot" for passes in the very near and very recent terms? I verified
    > that the search parameters did include the moment of the pass for both the
    > next 24 hours and past 48 hours links. The detail page still shows the
    > proper information even when I made sure it wasn't cached locally. Does
    > anyone know if the disappearing pass prediction problem is a bug or just a
    > limitation of the prediction code? I'd really like to find out since I have
    > decided not to view passes in the past due to their no longer being listed
    > moments before the predicted time.
    > Thanks,
    > John
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