SpaceCom has issued a decay warning for Molniya 1-57 (#13964 = 83 25 A), predicting the decay for 2000 Jan 18 23:53 +-12h. The latest two elsets for this are: Molniya 1-57 17673 x 112 km 1 13964U 83025A 00017.47231975 .24275053 -62284-5 75672-2 0 2120 2 13964 62.6204 86.1367 5749795 269.1184 28.4376 4.60114414123420 Molniya 1-57 16319 x 89 km 1 13964U 83025A 00018.16225747 .00061526 -25963-5 62270-5 0 2136 2 13964 62.5906 85.7510 5564675 268.8927 125.7718 4.93058053123452 The drag term in the latest elset is much too low, while the perigee height implied by the previous elset is too high. With the perigee being forced lower by luni-solar gravitational effects, which SatEvo does not model, expect the Molniya to run early with respect to my orbit prediction: Molniya 1-57 15769 x 90 km 1 13964U 83025A 00018.51145827 .25965451 15705-1 25547-2 0 92132 2 13964 62.5906 85.5625 5479255 268.9048 31.1612 5.07337094123477 Molniya 1-57 14643 x 90 km 1 13964U 83025A 00019.08624672 .28907271 18523-1 25752-2 0 92133 2 13964 62.5906 85.2304 5294054 268.9263 32.9636 5.38830418123500 I doubt, though, whether it will decay today, as SpaceCom predict. I also fear that SpaceCom may be on the verge of losing this for a couple of days. More details at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750 Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Jan 18 2000 - 00:20:38 PST