Decay watch: 2000 Jan 21

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Jan 21 2000 - 15:59:42 PST

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    Two of the current decayers are on their last day in orbit.
    
    #7969 = 75- 56 B = Cosmos 744 rocket
    Similar decay predictions this evening from both SpaceCom (Jan 22 18:00
    +-14h) and myself (Jan 22 18:09 +-5h). The final predicted orbit...
    Cosmos 744 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v 11.1       124 x 123 km
    1 07969U 75056B   00022.70531444  .50711079  29381+1  25907-3 0 90715
    2 07969  81.2017 253.5988 0000984 262.9756  97.0132 16.55997701354161
    ...begins with a northbound equator crossing at 121.6d W and continues
    over the W USA and Canada from San Diego, CA, at 17:04 UTC towards
    Calgary, Alberta, at 17:08. The southbound leg tales it over Moscow at
    17:25 and Baghdad, Iraq, at 17:31. SpaceCom puts decay over Antarctica
    while I show it over the S Pacific a few minutes later.
    
    #13964 = 83- 25 A = Molniya 1-57
    Still no further word from SpaceCom about this decayer while I now
    predict its decay for Jan 23 05:27 +-16h. The apogee is falling by 250km
    during each orbit which makes the likely cross-track error high except
    near perigee.
    
    #26044 = 99- 73 C = Cosmos 2368 Molniya platform
    My decay prediction is Jan 22 05:52 +-2h near 60.2N/143.7E while
    SpaceCom puts it at Jan 22 05:37 +-8h. My prediction places decay after
    northern apex over the far E of Russia as it turns S to across the
    Pacific. This final orbit takes it northwards over Saudi Arabia which is
    where SpaceCom put the decay. It continues over Tehran, Iran, at 05:37.
    My predicted elset for this rev:
    C 2368 Moln pl   3.0  0.0  0.0  5.5 d    9       123 x 106 km
    1 26044U 99073C   00022.22723862 1.49442442  22917+2  44193-3 0 90945
    2 26044  62.8146 235.6839 0013329 111.4719 248.6703 16.59386370  4049
    
    Details plus elsets at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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