Decay watch: 2000 Jan 26

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Jan 26 2000 - 03:50:25 PST

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    #13964 = 83- 25 A = Molniya 1-57
    SpaceCom has updated its warning for this, predicting decay at Jan 26
    18:27 +-8h. My prediction is for decay at Jan 26 19:54 +-3h placing the
    reentry over the Drake Passage to the S of Cape Horn. However, there a
    decay near the previous perigee at 18:25 UTC is quite possible, as per
    SpaceCom and Harro Zimmer. My prediction for the final orbits runs:
    Molniya 1-57                                     764 x 79 km
    1 13964U 83025A   00026.65426936 1.83999554  19328+1  92496-3 0 92913
    2 13964  62.5651  72.1664 0503668 271.1768  83.0597 15.48500000124266
    Molniya 1-57                                     611 x 78 km
    1 13964U 83025A   00026.71853484 2.36742379  37778+1  98007-3 0 92915
    2 13964  62.5572  71.9250 0396737 271.1930  84.2658 15.75130975124276
    Molniya 1-57                                     406 x 76 km
    1 13964U 83025A   00026.78163269 3.85488864  18842+2  11185-2 0 92911
    2 13964  62.5425  71.6773 0249270 271.2098  85.9359 16.12212282124286
    
    #16885 = 86- 57 A = Molniya 1-67
    SpaceCom is now predicting this decay for Jan 27 05:22 +-17h but has
    published no new elsets for two days.
    
    See http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for more details.
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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