Time to close the book on three decays that have occurred since I was
last able to update my Decay watch page on May 30th. Check the page for
more details.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #20586 = 90- 39 D = Molniya 1-77 r2
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 31 18:03 May 31 17:48 +-7m 63.0 S 78.0 E
SatEvo Jun 1 13:55 May 31 17:45 +-15m 62.8 S 53.8 E
Final elset:
Molniya 1-77 r2 429 x 76 km
1 20586U 90039D 02151.69384656 .15944716 74538-5 47567-4 0 250
2 20586 63.1993 311.9383 0266514 246.7704 110.9609 16.08017267 88422
Note: I suspect that this decayed near perigee on the orbit
represented by the final elset, though the latter has a drag
term (0.159..) that is much too low - a more realistic value
might be ~4 or so. Like SpaceCom, I put the decay near the coast
of Antarctica, to the south of the Indian Ocean.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26641 = 00- 81 D = Astra 2D Ariane 5 r
Notice prepared: 2002 Jun 1 14:05 UTC
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 31 22:54 May 31 21:59 +-7m 1.2 S 48.9 E
SatEvo Jun 1 14:05 May 31 23:35 +-2h 1.6 S 37.2 E
Final elset:
Astra 2D Ariane 5 r 673 x 75 km
1 26641U 00081D 02151.69397462 .50361572 -32833-4 17084-3 0 8549
2 26641 2.0939 52.6942 0442875 201.7137 156.3424 15.64890112 21334
Note: I have this decaying one rev later than does SpaceCom, with
re-entry near Nairobi, Kenya, on the following SatEvo-predicted
rev:
Astra 2D Ariane 5 r 302 x 77 km
1 26641U 00081D 02151.94370722 1.96982424 70393+1 46373-3 0 98543
2 26641 2.0931 50.5486 0171059 206.0005 153.1302 16.31146866 21370
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26940 = 01- 45 E = Raduga 1-6 aux motor
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom May 31 03:13 May 30 23:25 +-3h 45.8 N 59.0 E
SatEvo Jun 1 18:40 May 31 01:10 +-3h 44.4 N 39.7 E
Final elset:
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 2055 x 101 km
1 26940U 01045E 02150.75234327 .99999999 36270-4 45378-2 0 2471
2 26940 46.9178 192.6932 1310527 81.2676 294.9258 13.48441155 7236
Note: I show this surviving an orbit later than does SpaceCom, with
re-entry possible in the vicinity of the Black sea following a pass
across Europe from the Bay of Biscay at 01:03 UTC, to Munich at
01:05 and Odessa at 01:08. My SatEvo-predicted elset for that
rev is:
Raduga 1-6 aux motor 891 x 84 km
1 26940U 01045E 02151.03087558 5.50101158 18115+2 38048-2 0 92479
2 26940 46.8554 191.4154 0588065 82.5158 284.1233 15.26108964 7272
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Jun 25 2002 - 20:50:33 EDT