Re: OIG TLE harangue

From: Thomas Fly (
Date: Sat Jun 19 2004 - 10:13:28 EDT

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    Hopefully we'll hear from Tomas today or tomorrow about what his precise
    location was- and hopefully it won't just muddy the water that much more.
    I know that for the Charlotte, NC, Jupiter encounter June 1, the MCC prediction
    changed by 1.5 miles in 8 days (and apparently was basically accurate, on the
    day itself); while- assuming that the OIG TLE was accurate for that evening
    (which I don't know), the OIG prediction changed by 1.5 miles in about 21 hours
    (and had been basically wrong, 21 hours before the event).
    Likewise, for the Venus transit, the MCC prediction changed by only 222 meters
    from June 4 to June 7.
    The solar transit I observed Thursday couldn't have been off by more than 1'
    from the MCC prediction (and to my eye, it was probably good to the size of the
    ISS itself), while in the hours before, the OIG prediction changed over a range
    of 2', with the best prediction (from the latest TLE) more than 4' off.
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