FSW-1 / 93-63H / 22870 decay (and others
bjorn@tt-tech.se
Mon, 4 Mar 1996 13:11:58 +0100
Subject: FSW-1 / 93-63H / 22870 decay (and others)
Mike McCants <mike@comshare.com> notes:
> The part of the orbit in darkness goes from +56 to -56, so it
> looks like almost everyone has a chance.
and
>The last regular elset should be about 68.5 or so. But after re-entry
>on March 11, we should get the last elset (71.3) on Monday afternoon.
Those of you who live near the shadow entry (and exit) latitudes
can help us predictors, and those who might see the decay, by
reporting your observations.
Today, entry is around 40 degrees N (exit 10 S),
Wednesday 47 N (20 S), Friday 53 N (32 S), Sunday 56 N (40 S)
If you can make positional measurements, report your latitude,
longitude, observation time and positions.
If not, observations like "On March 7 at 00:44 UT, FSW-1 was 17 seconds
early, with respect to predictions from elset with epoch 96066.234567"
are very useful. You should also note if you used Quicksat
or some SGP or SGP4 prediction program.
Observers can assume a quadratic increase of the time error with age
of elset, and all observations can be used to improve decay predictions.
In both cases, you should post your observations as soon as possible.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
It pleases me to see that NASAs decay predictions are gradually
moving closer to mine, though I can't feel any pride in it, since
I never knew, which has been most correct. From their March 01 report:
=20
1995 004C Oderacs 2A Payload 23471 March 01
1971 0015AZ Cosmos 397 Debris 05244 March 05
1993 063H FSW-1 Capsule Payload 22870 March 06
1994 014D SL-14 Debris 23022 March 19
1996 012B TSS-1R Payload 23805 March 22
1995 039B SL-06 Rocketbody (1) 23633 March 25
1983 075J Cosmos 1484 Debris 22892 April 01
1995 008F Cosmos 2306 Debris 23510 April 26
1995 4 C cannot possibly have decayed yet, my guess (!) is Mar.11
Tomorrow, it enters shadow at 50 S, exits at 47 N.
1971 15 AZ enters at 65 S, exits at 25 N (moving N). So, they
may be visible (but faint) for some observers before decay.
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