Jian Bing 93 decay prediction
Mike McCants (mike@comshare.com)
Mon, 11 Mar 1996 19:10:29 -0600
It is now March 12 at 1:11UT. I case I get lucky, I want to be
able to say "I told you so". :-)
The 3 latest elsets on OIG today were:
1 22870U 93063H 96071.16666667 .05414451 11610-4 12815-3 0 5215
2 22870 56.4195 19.4485 0089081 81.7041 327.9765 16.31605115117949
1 22870U 93063H 96071.58655669 .07849508 11756-4 13133-3 0 5235
2 22870 56.4109 17.3564 0071913 83.6390 277.4768 16.37325605118012
1 22870U 93063H 96071.58652475 .07663278 11753-4 12709-3 0 5241
2 22870 56.4094 17.3563 0072216 83.8101 277.1212 16.37327064118015
The 71.166 elset with a drag factor to bring it into agreement
with the 71.586 elsets gives a re-entry interface at 100Km
of 2:06UT and a re-entry over the next 7 minutes to 2:13UT.
The 71.586 elsets with a drag factor that gives better agreement
with the drag parameter of 0.075 gives a re-entry interface at 2:14
and re-entry at 2:21 and re-entry interface at 2:08 and re-entry
at 2:15.
The ground track at that time is northwest of and over Newfoundland.
NCAT 22870 Jian Bing 93
HR MN LAT LONG
2 4 53.3-123.9
2 5 54.7-117.5
2 6 55.8-110.7
2 7 56.4-103.6
2 8 56.6 -96.3
2 9 56.3 -89.1
2 10 55.6 -82.0
2 11 54.4 -75.3
2 12 52.9 -69.0
2 13 51.1 -63.2
2 14 48.9 -57.9
2 15 46.6 -53.1
2 16 44.0 -48.7
Of course I am predicting over a 12 hour period from the last elsets,
so I could easily be off 30 minutes or more.
Mike McCants
mike@comshare.com