FSW-1 SatEvo decay predictions
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 11 Mar 1996 21:02:35 +0000
OIG gave me the following elements for FSW-1 a couple of hours ago:
SATNO = 22870
Element set number = 1
1 22870U 93063H 96071.16666667 .05414451 11610-4 12815-3 0 5215
2 22870 56.4195 19.4485 0089081 81.7041 327.9765 16.31605115117949
Element set number = 2
1 22870U 93063H 96070.05220917 .00282782 11337-4 10000-4 0 5155
2 22870 56.4170 24.9547 0122013 79.4007 282.1560 16.22177171117762
Element set number = 3
1 22870U 93063H 96070.36007598 .03366970 11431-4 11285-3 0 5174
2 22870 56.4132 23.4433 0113208 79.1292 282.2501 16.24343768117818
Element set number = 4
1 22870U 93063H 96070.23705214 .03397281 11414-4 11911-3 0 5165
2 22870 56.4133 24.0491 0115710 78.7531 283.1285 16.23531190117794
Element set number = 5
1 22870U 93063H 96070.72896275 .03512377 11496-4 10077-3 0 5197
2 22870 56.4151 21.6211 0105085 79.3187 281.9297 16.27039808117876
The 70.23 element has a spurious "ndot" (.00282782) but my SatEvo
program yields the following decay times from the other elements:
Elset Decay
70.23 Mar 12.45
70.36 Mar 12.55
70.72 Mar 12.68
71.16 Mar 12.27
The 71.16 elset shows a residual (OIG-SatEvo) of -50.6 seconds with
respect to the SatEvo predictions I posted yesterday. However a simple
adjustment to ndot in the original (69.55) elset gives residuals of less
than 3 seconds at the equator crossings corresponding to the above four
elements. This adjusted element yields my (final?) predicted decay time
of March 12.35 (ie March 12 at about 08.30).
SatEvo predictions for each remaining orbit follow, based on my
adjustment of the 69.55 elset. Note that I have added the 2nd derivative
of the mean motion (divided by 6) and checksums. I've also changed the
program's name from SATEVO to SatEvo.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96071.15838430 .04967879 83555-3 00000-0 0 95124
2 22870 56.4107 19.4935 0085511 80.7041 280.2628 16.31173715117940
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96071.21964917 .05129432 92445-3 00000-0 0 95125
2 22870 56.4105 19.1885 0083274 80.8503 280.0908 16.31792182117952
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96071.28089031 .05306314 10133-2 00000-0 0 95126
2 22870 56.4103 18.8834 0080977 80.9966 279.9190 16.32431112117966
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96071.34210693 .05500968 11167-2 00000-0 0 95122
2 22870 56.4101 18.5781 0078613 81.1429 279.7464 16.33092500117971
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96071.40329815 .05716431 12381-2 00000-0 0 95129
2 22870 56.4099 18.2727 0076177 81.2893 279.5729 16.33778673117988
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96071.46446299 .05956500 13820-2 00000-0 0 95123
2 22870 56.4097 17.9671 0073662 81.4358 279.3983 16.34492368117990
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96071.52560038 .06225992 15547-2 00000-0 0 95121
2 22870 56.4094 17.6613 0071059 81.5824 279.2227 16.35236841118003
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96071.58670910 .06531127 17646-2 00000-0 0 95120
2 22870 56.4092 17.3553 0068359 81.7291 279.0459 16.36016008118018
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96071.64778777 .06880082 20238-2 00000-0 0 95125
2 22870 56.4090 17.0491 0065548 81.8759 278.8676 16.36834653118024
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96071.70883481 .07283864 24121-2 00000-0 0 95122
2 22870 56.4086 16.7427 0062614 82.0228 278.6879 16.37698704118039
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96071.76984839 .07757891 28496-2 00000-0 0 95122
2 22870 56.4084 16.4361 0059536 82.1698 278.5057 16.38615659118049
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96071.83082636 .08323712 34294-2 00000-0 0 95129
2 22870 56.4081 16.1292 0056292 82.3169 278.3220 16.39595213118052
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96071.89176615 .09013469 42235-2 00000-0 0 95126
2 22870 56.4078 15.8221 0052852 82.4642 278.1359 16.40650258118066
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96071.95266462 .09877117 53585-2 00000-0 0 95121
2 22870 56.4074 15.5148 0049174 82.6115 277.9446 16.41798536118075
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96072.01351781 .10997235 70735-2 00000-0 0 95120
2 22870 56.4071 15.2071 0045200 82.7591 277.7546 16.43065574118080
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96072.07432055 .12522058 98711-2 00000-0 0 95123
2 22870 56.4066 14.8991 0040846 82.9068 277.5576 16.44490326118092
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96072.13506576 .14750476 14976-1 00000-0 0 95129
2 22870 56.4062 14.5907 0035974 83.0547 277.3544 16.46137344118107
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96072.19574291 .18402709 26139-1 00000-0 0 95125
2 22870 56.4056 14.2819 0030335 83.2028 277.1423 16.48127862118112
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96072.25633410 .25861022 60704-1 00000-0 0 95122
2 22870 56.4049 13.9725 0023383 83.3512 276.9149 16.50744619118121
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H 96072.31679840 .55215397 99999-1 00000-0 0 95125
2 22870 56.4039 13.6623 0013182 83.5000 276.6501 16.55098184118138
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | Home lat. 55d53m48.7s N | Royal Observatory, Blackford
Edinburgh | long. 3d11m51.2s W | Hill, Edinburgh EH9 3HJ
Scotland | alan@wingar.demon.co.uk | A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk
| +44 (0)131 477 9144 | +44 (0)131 668 8224