At 12:04 PM 3/24/98 -0800, ROB MATSON wrote: > >The only track that comes close that I've been able to find is Molniya 3-27 >(85117A, #16393). It was on a parallel track during that time period, moving >at the proper speed, about 1 degree west of the above track. --Rob Interesting that a colleague reported a sighting to me from New Mexico in December of a bright flashing object that matches up only with a Molniya object: > [begin quote from email exchange] > On New Year's Eve, I was outside enjoying the cold, clear midnight sky when > I noticed a flash near the zenith. Several seconds later, I saw another. > I watched it over a period of 5 minutes or so. The flashes (very bright, > fast, and small) were repetitive enough for me to estimate about a > 12-second interval. I realized that most space junk was in earth's shadow > at midnight, and so was truly puzzled as to what it could be. It was way > too far away to be a conventional plane. > > I mentioned this to colleague John G, and he suggested I check out > your column in the latest S/I. > > SUPERBIRD A! I bet I saw it! Not so fast. First, geosyncs are never seen at the zenith (unless one is near the equator). Look at where all the satellite dishes in your vicinity point. None of them go straight up. Second, I happen to know that Superbird A is not presently visible from North America, and won't be until about March. However, it could be a dead or dying object in a Molniya-type orbit. The Russkies are fond of putting lots of stuff into very highly elliptical orbits of 12-hour periods so that they spend most of their time up at very high altitudes over the high latitudes like Siberia. Normally they're pretty faint, but then a well-behaved satellite would never flash repeatedly like that - the flash indicates a tumble out of control. This may be the Molniya equivalent of Superbird A. [my next letter] I ran SKYMAP with the more-or-less full dataset of satellite elements (alldat.tle), and yep, there were a bunch of them up above you in high orbits (there always are). I set it up for midnight my time, which is 1AM your time (08:00 UT Dec. 31), and plugged in your lat/long. (And actually, small errors in position are the LEAST of our worry, especially on distant objects like this. Compute the parallax yourself!) While there were several possibilities, in my guesstimation the best candidate is: [begin quote] 18 January 1979 Molniya 3-11 Nation: USSR. Launch Site: Plesetsk . Launch Vehicle: Molniya M . LV Configuration: Molniya-M (Block-ML). Program: Molniya. Payload: Molniya-3 11. Mass: 2,060 kg. Class: Domestic Comsat. Spacecraft: Molniya. Perigee: 370 km. Apogee: 39,973 km. Inclination: 63.0 deg. Period: 717.6 min. COSPAR: 1979-004A. Continued operation of the long-range telephone and telegraph radio-communication system within the Soviet Union and transmission of USSR central television programmes to stations in the Orbita and participating international networks (international coope ration scheme). [end quote] Since this object is now 19 years old, it is almost certainly non-operational. (The lifetime of an American Comsat is about 10 years, I assume that the Russian ones last no longer). Any object that might be tumbling to produce the reflections that you reported cannot possibly be operational. While a Molniya is surlely a large object, I am not aware of any naked-eye sightings of reflections from them. The range was 16,494 km. While this is quite distant, it is much less distant than a geosynchronous sat (about 40,000 km), and we know that large objects in geosynchronous orbit can produce naked-eye reflections. When the geometry is favorable, Superbird A is typically magnitude 3-4. If the size of the two objects is comparable (Molniya might be smaller), the distance alone allows an advantage in magnitude for the Molniya of a factor of about 6, or about 2 magnitudes, which makes a Magnitude 1 reflection theoretically possible. Another possibility might be something designated 96060A, but I don't know what that is. Its range was 12,340 km. Also, 94081 was at a range of 16,327 km. [end excerpt] So, now that more people are looking for, and reporting, flashes from satellites, are they starting to see a few Molniya naked-eye flashers? Robert Sheaffer - robert@debunker.com - Skeptical to the Max! Visit my Home Page - http://www.debunker.com/~sheaffer Skeptical Resources Debunking All Manner of Bogus Claims Also: Opera / Astronomy / Mens Issues / more