Decay watch: Mar 11

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 11 Mar 1999 20:36:44 +0000

Decays have been postponed again...
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Object: #23863 = 96- 29 G = NOSS 2-3 Titan r

Decay prediction:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Mar  6 07:16     Mar 10 06:14 +-2d         3.1 S    92.0 E
SpaceCom   Mar  9 00:53     Mar 11 14:31 +-2d         9.5 N    45.6 W
SpaceCom   Mar  9 19:40     Mar 11 14:56 +-1d        63.0 S    31.4 E
SpaceCom   Mar 11 10:18     Mar 12 09:35 +-14h        0.3 N    28.9 E

SatEvo     Mar  4 20:15     Mar 10 09:12 +-1.5d       0        44.4 E
SatEvo     Mar  6 18:00     Mar  9 21:23 +-16h        0       135.8 E
SatEvo     Mar  8 19:00     Mar 11 12:49 +-18h       54.7 N    60.2 W
SatEvo     Mar  9 22:20     Mar 12 01:33 +-14h        0        29.3 W
SatEvo     Mar 10 23:35     Mar 11 22:36 +-6h         0        37.5 E
SatEvo     Mar 11 20:00     Mar 12 07:54 +-4h        42.4 N    27.1 E

Latest elset:
NOSS 2-3 r       9.8  3.0  0.0  4.8 v            162 x 154 km
1 23863U 96029G   99070.63974309  .04190393  00000-0  18505-3 0   592
2 23863  63.3906 164.9443 0006026 359.8924   0.2735 16.43028532 74772

SatEvo predicted elsets:
NOSS 2-3 r       9.8  3.0  0.0  4.8 v            154 x 148 km
1 23863U 96029G   99070.88298889  .06796294  46997-1  17290-3 0 90590
2 23863  63.3898 163.9463 0005055 359.8959   0.1040 16.45667142 74813
NOSS 2-3 r       9.8  3.0  0.0  4.8 v            149 x 143 km
1 23863U 96029G   99071.00445295  .09143297  87471-1  16214-3 0 90599
2 23863  63.3892 163.4463 0004407 359.8977   0.1022 16.47573969 74839
NOSS 2-3 r       9.8  3.0  0.0  4.8 v            141 x 136 km
1 23863U 96029G   99071.12575044  .13733909  18110+0  15264-3 0 90594
2 23863  63.3883 162.9454 0003554 359.8995   0.1004 16.50278262 74859
NOSS 2-3 r       9.8  3.0  0.0  4.8 v            129 x 126 km
1 23863U 96029G   99071.24679624  .26555027  86611+0  15046-3 0 90592
2 23863  63.3871 162.4430 0002342 359.9013   0.0986 16.54701890 74873
NOSS 2-3 r       9.8  3.0  0.0  4.8 v            114 x 112 km
1 23863U 96029G   99071.30715178  .88684259  11433+2  25145-3 0 90595
2 23863  63.3859 162.1909 0001209 359.9023   0.0977 16.59998287 74883

Note: The latest elset shows this running 48 seconds late on
yesterday's prediction. 
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Object: #25166 = 98-  8 E = Globalstar 1 Delta r

Decay prediction:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Mar  9 20:05     Mar 16 07:53 +-4d        12.6 N     7.3 E

SatEvo     Mar  9 23:05     Mar 16 12:16 +-2.5d
SatEvo     Mar 10 23:20     Mar 15 21:30 +-1.5d
SatEvo     Mar 11 20:25     Mar 16 00:28 +-1.4d

Latest two elsets (see note):
Gblstr 1 Dlt r   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v            326 x 185 km
1 25166U 98008E   99070.45052589  .01613323  00000-0  88504-3 0  4855
2 25166  52.6656 314.3809 0106544 359.0228   1.1311 16.06795523 58373
Gblstr 1 Dlt r   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v            330 x 181 km
1 25166U 98008E   99070.57501002  .01487866  00000-0  72671-3 0  4867
2 25166  52.6666 313.7069 0112863   0.1248   0.0526 16.06904348 58397

Note: The latest elset looks very suspect to me, unless something 
odd has happened to the rocket. Elsets over the previous 1.5 days 
agree with a fitted SatEvo evolution to within 0.5 second; the latest
elset has it running an unlikely 10 seconds late after only two orbits.
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Object: #25472 = 98- 51 F = Iridium 82 Delta r

Decay prediction:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SatEvo     Mar  9 22:45     Mar 15 12:33 +-2d
SatEvo     Mar 10 23:45     Mar 14 23:57 +-1d
SatEvo     Mar 11 20:30     Mar 15 02:10 +-1d

Latest elset:
Iridm 82 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            256 x 214 km
1 25472U 98051F   99070.36351542  .01386599 -12957-5  10175-2 0  2739
2 25472  83.4039 196.3056 0031647 354.4231   5.6699 16.14411433 28746
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/