Decay watch: Mar 21

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 21 Mar 1999 20:24:09 +0000

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Object: #25659 = 99- 13 C = AsiaSat 3S Proton platform

Decay prediction:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Mar 21 08:55     Mar 21 14:01 +-4h         1.5 S    19.5 W
SpaceCom   Mar 21 12:22     Mar 21 13:59 +-1h         5.4 N    24.5 W
SpaceCom   Mar 21 15:16     Mar 21 14:01 +-12m        1.7 S    19.4 W

SatEvo     Mar 21 15:45     Mar 21 13:42 +-15m       36.6 N    53.4 W

Final elset:
AsiaSat 3S Proton platform                       144 x 108 km
1 25659U 99013C   99080.54897749  .99999999  12768-4  66235-3 0    73
2 25659  51.5899 186.7214 0027339 256.7799 103.0262 16.55091903    96

Note: The track just before the predicted re-entry carried this from 
W->E across Canada from Vancouver at 13:29 UTC to the city of Quebec at
13:38. I locate the decay only 4 minutes further along the track, over 
the NW Atlantic; SpaceCom places it near the following southbound 
equator crossing just W of Africa.
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Object: #25658 = 99- 13 B = AsiaSat 3S Proton r

Decay prediction:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Mar 21 08:32     Mar 22 15:01 +-19h       35.2 S     9.6 W
SpaceCom   Mar 21 12:35     Mar 22 11:08 +-14h        7.9 S   170.2 W

SatEvo     Mar 21 19:45     Mar 21 15:15 +-10h       43.5 S    83.9 E

Latest elset:
AsiaSat 3S Proton r                              209 x 153 km
1 25658U 99013B   99080.61123794  .04135855  12219-4  35548-3 0    53
2 25658  51.5949 186.4058 0042064 273.1487  86.4816 16.34359169   102

Predicted elsets:
AsiaSat 3S Proton r                              199 x 149 km
1 25658U 99013B   99080.85560484  .05891683  19228-1  32686-3 0 90052
2 25658  51.5942 185.0318 0038187 274.1767  85.3868 16.36977564   148
AsiaSat 3S Proton r                              190 x 145 km
1 25658U 99013B   99081.03861647  .07231176  30856-1  27686-3 0 90059
2 25658  51.5935 183.9990 0034722 274.9494  84.6540 16.39359544   176
AsiaSat 3S Proton r                              179 x 140 km
1 25658U 99013B   99081.22133108  .09599339  61448-1  23533-3 0 90052
2 25658  51.5926 182.9641 0030463 275.7239  83.9289 16.42387109   200
AsiaSat 3S Proton r                              164 x 132 km
1 25658U 99013B   99081.40364966  .15129462  17719+0  20419-3 0 90053
2 25658  51.5914 181.9260 0024642 276.5006  83.2188 16.46718618   237
AsiaSat 3S Proton r                              147 x 123 km
1 25658U 99013B   99081.52486724  .27061477  62433+0  19665-3 0 90051
2 25658  51.5901 181.2314 0018579 277.0205  82.7682 16.51530679   255
AsiaSat 3S Proton r                              133 x 115 km
1 25658U 99013B   99081.58531199  .46070102  17006+1  20009-3 0 90051
2 25658  51.5890 180.8828 0013795 277.2814  82.5618 16.55753270   266

Note: As noted in an earlier posting, this is a morning object near
eclipse exit at 48 deg N latitude.
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Object: #25607 = 99-  1 C = Mars Polar Lander Delta 2 r1

Decay prediction:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Mar 14 14:32     Mar 23 03:32 +-5d        12.3 N    67.2 W
SpaceCom   Mar 16 01:23     Mar 23 01:19 +-4d        11.5 S   149.0 E
SpaceCom   Mar 19 06:49     Mar 23 06:32 +-2d         9.1 N   105.9 W
SpaceCom   Mar 20 03:19     Mar 23 00:39 +-2d         7.6 N    11.9 W
SpaceCom   Mar 21 00:43     Mar 23 00:22 +-1d        25.7 N    75.0 W

SatEvo     Mar 15 21:20     Mar 23 01:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Mar 16 20:45     Mar 22 21:17 +-1.5d
SatEvo     Mar 19 19:30     Mar 23 03:23 +-18h       17.7 N    79.9 W
SatEvo     Mar 20 23:25     Mar 23 00:22 +-10h       23.4 N    55.3 W
SatEvo     Mar 21 20:20     Mar 23 01:22 +-6h         0       172.0 E

Latest elset:
MPL Delta 2 r1   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            256 x 171 km
1 25607U 99001C   99080.77406249  .03925205 -11330-4  95626-3 0  1570
2 25607  25.8277  22.9273 0064000  95.7887 264.9982 16.22266320 11992

SatEvo predicted elsets:
MPL Delta 2 r1   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            244 x 167 km
1 25607U 99001C   99081.01979763  .05804662  14288-1  11292-2 0 91575
2 25607  25.8273  20.9574 0058897  99.1273 261.5396 16.25205940 12036
MPL Delta 2 r1   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            217 x 156 km
1 25607U 99001C   99081.50987900  .09462749  45037-1  10195-2 0 91578
2 25607  25.8261  17.0026 0046267 105.8300 254.6805 16.32358908 12114
MPL Delta 2 r1   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            166 x 133 km
1 25607U 99001C   99081.93623538  .34195518  95078+0  52058-3 0 91577
2 25607  25.8239  13.5158 0025394 111.7395 248.5310 16.46047922 12180
MPL Delta 2 r1   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            146 x 123 km
1 25607U 99001C   99081.99673619  .70247885  47734+1  49006-3 0 91579
2 25607  25.8230  13.0134 0017749 112.5910 247.5969 16.51793693 12196

Note: The latest elset shows the Delta running 5 seconds late against
yesterday's SatEvo prediction. The  (predicted) final orbit takes it
over the Gulf of Mexico and across S Florida at 00:17 UTC.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/