Decay watch: Mar 22
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 22 Mar 1999 21:51:03 +0000
Thanks to those who reported the typo in my SatEvo predictions which
suggested that the Proton rocket was to decay on "Mar 21" rather than
(the correct) "Mar 22". Apologies if anyone was misled, but I'm glad
that at least some SeeSaters are awake, even if I'm not :) You'll no
doubt see (and have seen) other errors - unfortunately, these are
probably inevitable given the priority I give to posting updates
quickly, before they are overtaken by events.
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Object: #25658 = 99- 13 B = AsiaSat 3S Proton r
Decay prediction:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Mar 21 08:32 Mar 22 15:01 +-19h 35.2 S 9.6 W
SpaceCom Mar 21 12:35 Mar 22 11:08 +-14h 7.9 S 170.2 W
SpaceCom Mar 22 01:47 Mar 22 14:17 +-8h 34.1 N 179.9 W
SpaceCom Mar 22 08:17 Mar 22 14:12 +-4h 18.4 N 164.4 E
SpaceCom Mar 22 11:41 Mar 22 14:03 +-1h 9.4 S 143.8 E
SpaceCom Mar 22 16:18 Mar 22 14:11 +-31m 14.8 N 161.4 E
SatEvo Mar 21 19:45 Mar 22 15:15 +-10h 43.5 S 83.9 E
SatEvo Mar 22 07:30 Mar 22 13:11 +-3h 23.9 N 36.7 W
SatEvo Mar 22 21:00 Mar 22 14:15 +-45m 37.2 N 175.8 W
^^ corrected
Final elset:
AsiaSat 3S Proton r 156 x 126 km
1 25658U 99013B 99081.46432147 .20417286 12673-4 18911-3 0 106
2 25658 51.5948 181.5809 0022962 271.7258 88.1258 16.49384443 249
Note: The final elset shows this running 19 seconds late on the
prediction I posted a few hours before decay. I am surprised that no
further elsets have appeared (yet), particularly since the remaining
orbit(s) took it over N America.
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Object: #25607 = 99- 1 C = Mars Polar Lander Delta 2 r1
Decay prediction:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Mar 14 14:32 Mar 23 03:32 +-5d 12.3 N 67.2 W
SpaceCom Mar 16 01:23 Mar 23 01:19 +-4d 11.5 S 149.0 E
SpaceCom Mar 19 06:49 Mar 23 06:32 +-2d 9.1 N 105.9 W
SpaceCom Mar 20 03:19 Mar 23 00:39 +-2d 7.6 N 11.9 W
SpaceCom Mar 21 00:43 Mar 23 00:22 +-1d 25.7 N 75.0 W
SpaceCom Mar 22 00:48 Mar 23 01:10 +-15h 23.9 S 110.1 E
SpaceCom Mar 22 12:06 Mar 23 00:36 +-9h 13.1 N 23.7 W
SatEvo Mar 15 21:20 Mar 23 01:00 +-2d
SatEvo Mar 16 20:45 Mar 22 21:17 +-1.5d
SatEvo Mar 19 19:30 Mar 23 03:23 +-18h 17.7 N 79.9 W
SatEvo Mar 20 23:25 Mar 23 00:22 +-10h 23.4 N 55.3 W
SatEvo Mar 21 20:20 Mar 23 01:22 +-6h 0 172.0 E
SatEvo Mar 22 21:40 Mar 23 01:22 +-4h 0 171.7 E
Latest two elsets:
MPL Delta 2 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 d 224 x 161 km
1 25607U 99001C 99081.38762405 .07486399 -11698-4 10342-2 0 1621
2 25607 25.8210 17.9660 0048162 106.3650 254.2401 16.29984606 12092
MPL Delta 2 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 d 231 x 156 km
1 25607U 99001C 99081.38767507 .05945204 00000-0 73636-3 0 1640
2 25607 25.8212 17.9699 0056934 99.6051 261.1443 16.29543572 12143
SatEvo predicted elsets:
MPL Delta 2 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 d 189 x 145 km
1 25607U 99001C 99081.81492094 .17305767 18461+0 72743-3 0 91625
2 25607 25.8195 14.4893 0033319 112.2577 248.0960 16.39613346 12166
MPL Delta 2 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 d 180 x 141 km
1 25607U 99001C 99081.87571918 .21811520 31639+0 62972-3 0 91623
2 25607 25.8192 13.9900 0029930 113.1041 247.2117 16.41966259 12179
MPL Delta 2 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 d 169 x 136 km
1 25607U 99001C 99081.93641595 .30581631 67112+0 55184-3 0 91628
2 25607 25.8187 13.4897 0025585 113.9522 246.3160 16.45078251 12186
MPL Delta 2 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 d 152 x 127 km
1 25607U 99001C 99081.99696691 .55616162 23646+1 50251-3 0 91621
2 25607 25.8181 12.9878 0019149 114.8029 245.3964 16.49972557 12192
Note: The latest elset shows this running 8 seconds late against
yesterday's SatEvo prediction. However, this elset is suspect (the
drag is too low and the eccentricity too high) so I have rejected
it in favour of the preceding one. Indeed, updated elsets are overdue.
As I noted yesterday, this crosses S Florida at 00:17 UTC.
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Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/