Decay watch: 2000 Mar 23

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Mar 23 2000 - 13:06:35 PST

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    #11331 = 79- 32 A = Cosmos 1093
    
    SpaceCom's latest warning, issued at 14:10 UTC today, is for this decay
    to occur at Mar 23 20:07 +-4h near 32.9 S. 94.2 W. Further warnings have
    not appeared and are now overdue. The latest (final?) elset for this
    is...
    Cosmos 1093      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   11       153 x 123 km
    1 11331U 79032A   00083.73877543  .21414692  00000-0  18113-3 0  4211
    2 11331  81.1882 202.3867 0023129 216.9943 143.0375 16.50568366154502
    My calculations suggest that this elset (which probably has a too-high
    eccentricity) may be for the final northbound equator crossing, with
    decay most likely on the approach to the following northbound crossing
    to the W of Sumatra, Indonesia, at Mar 23 19:10 +-30m at 4.1 S, 92.6 E.
    If it did survive long enough, then there would have been a southbound
    pass over Canada and the USA from Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, at 19:41 UTC,
    passing just E of Denver, Colorado, at 19:44 and over Lubbock, Texas, at
    19:46. I expect/hope that this would also result in the publication of a
    further elset.
    
    
    #20919 = 90- 93 B = Inmarsat 2-1 Delta 2 rocket
    
    Recent decay predictions for this:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Mar 22 20:04     Mar 25 20:33 +-2d        23.6 N    34.4 E
    SpaceCom   Mar 23 03:52     Mar 25 04:04 +-1d        13.1 N   150.3 W
    
    SatEvo     Mar 22 21:45     Mar 25 23:46 +-19h
    SatEvo     Mar 23 20:45     Mar 26 04:34 +-16h
    
    The latest elset is:
    Inmarsat 2-1 r   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   14       250 x 208 km
    1 20919U 90093B   00083.38352823  .02128813  00000-0  12162-2 0  5936
    2 20919  24.7173  76.6042 0031548 112.1260 248.3131 16.16461158512083
    
    
    More details at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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