Decay watch: 2002 March 13

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Mar 13 2002 - 15:26:12 EST

  • Next message: Sebastian Stabroth: "Re: Decay watch: 2002 March 13"

    After a lull, two decayers are now the subjects of SpaceCom decay 
    warnings. The following is a summary from my Decay Watch page.
    
    ____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #19189 = 88- 44 A = Molniya 3-32
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 13 06:14     Mar 14 20:17 +-23h       12.7 S    25.2 W
    SatEvo     Mar 13 20:00     Mar 14 20:07 +-10h       59.0 S    77.1 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-32                                     4958 x 58 km
    1 19189U 88044A   02072.62690382  .74799127  56359-5  26401-3 0   175
    2 19189  62.3711 100.2555 2756844 262.6563  65.7874 10.36466387 67053
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (..ends)
    Molniya 3-32                                     1112 x 79 km
    1 19189U 88044A   02073.78493642 5.22216683  10247+2  32732-2 0 90143
    2 19189  62.2320  97.5254 0740718 262.8735  88.6533 14.90828352 67195
    Molniya 3-32                                     551 x 76 km
    1 19189U 88044A   02073.85098723 9.99999999  50000+2  40231-2 0 90142
    2 19189  62.1971  97.2841 0355172 262.8960  93.0527 15.86044618 67207
    
    Note: The perigee is unlikely to be as low as that implied by the
    latest elset. The prediction is very uncertain. I estimate that decay
    might occur near perigee on the penultimate predicted rev above, just
    after southern apex to the S of South America.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23742 = 95- 69 B = Galaxy 3R Atlas 2A Centaur rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
    SpaceCom   Mar 13 00:39     Mar 15 23:10 +-2d        26.6 N    86.2 W
    SatEvo     Mar 13 20:15     Mar 16 03:45 +-20h
    
    Latest elset:
    Galaxy 3R Centaur r                              997 x 132 km
    1 23742U 95069B   02072.43572726  .11772771 -70227-5  95151-3 0  2875
    2 23742  26.5753   3.6400 0623384  33.7489 330.1326 15.00759018 95616
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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