Re: Has Tiangong 1 gone rogue

For what it's worth, I happened to observe it last night for the first time in a while and I used the heavens-above app on my phone and it was spot on with the pass and the eclipse into darkness. 

It did not appear to change magnitude as if it were in a spin or tumble, but it did flare slightly before going into sunset. 

Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4G LTE DROID

Marco Langbroek via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org> wrote:

>Op 31-3-2016 om 0:49 schreef Kevin Fetter via Seesat-l:
>> http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Has_Tiangong_1_gone_rogue_999.html
>
>Xinhua says the following 
>(http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-03/21/c_135209671.htm):
>
>"The functions of the space laboratory and target orbiter have been disabled 
>after an extended service period of about two and a half years, although it 
>remains in designed orbit, according to the office"
>
>That is ambiguous wording: it might be read as meaning that the station was 
>intentionally put in dormant state ("have been disabled"), which is something 
>different than a loss of contact.
>
>In that case, it could be that they intend to have it come down for a while by 
>natural decay, and then revive it for a deorbit burn when it is at a lower 
>orbital altitude than it is now. One reason to do so is when the amount of fuel 
>left after its extended mission is not enough to deorbit it from its current 
>orbital altitude.
>
>But then again, maybe they do mean an actual loss of contact with it. Well, 
>we'll see what happens.
>
>If it ends with a fully natural decay and re-entry, then based on a fixed F10.7 
>flux of 100 and the element sets of last month, current SatEvo estimates for 
>re-entry vary between April 2017 and January 2018, i.e. mid 2017 to early 2018.
>
>- Marco
>
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