Decay watch: 2001 May 6

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun May 06 2001 - 09:07:35 PDT

  • Next message: Phillip Clark: "Re: Decay watch: 2001 May 6"

    I note that OIG is listing Cosmos 2370 (#26354 = 00- 23 A) as "decayed"
    on May 4. The final elset I have for this is:
    
    Cosmos 2370      6.0  3.0  0.0  4.5 d   17       249 x 204 km
    1 26354U 00023A   01123.80485933  .00492828  73836-5  27378-3 0  1595
    2 26354  64.6874 192.5694 0033862 295.6316  64.0775 16.17588148 58547
    
    If it had not been deorbited, and had made no further manoeuvres, its
    natural decay would have been about May 15.
    
    The following note on Cosmos 1569 is taken from my updated Decay Watch
    page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #15027 = 84- 55 A = Cosmos 1569
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May  3 11:44     May  3 23:43 +-23h       59.8 S   175.3 W
    SatEvo     May  6 15:45     May  6 22:53 +-4h        61.1 S   148.3 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1569                                      2006 x 77 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01126.51679079  .99999999  13627-5  11021-2 0  8836
    2 15027  62.2045 104.2837 1299793 248.4695 260.7816 13.58429106124814
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Cosmos 1569                                      1703 x 81 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01126.62916756 1.90641086  10035+1  16837-2 0 98831
    2 15027  62.1802 103.9554 1115925 248.5007  99.2486 14.00571489124838
    Cosmos 1569                                      1508 x 80 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01126.70011749 2.16072546  14060+1  17023-2 0 98836
    2 15027  62.1683 103.7370 0995819 248.5216 100.5776 14.29323918124840
    Cosmos 1569                                      1297 x 79 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01126.76960110 2.52815283  21738+1  17298-2 0 98834
    2 15027  62.1550 103.5132 0861617 248.5433 102.0559 14.61717582124853
    Cosmos 1569                                      1058 x 78 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01126.83748748 3.12948398  40329+1  17801-2 0 98831
    2 15027  62.1394 103.2830 0705632 248.5658 103.7649 14.99713756124863
    Cosmos 1569                                      769 x 76 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01126.90355661 4.40481381  11803+2  18761-2 0 98835
    2 15027  62.1194 103.0447 0509232 248.5894 105.9032 15.48143215124876
    Cosmos 1569                                      280 x 72 km
    1 15027U 84055A   01126.96736038 9.99999999  50000+2  31803-2 0 98834
    2 15027  62.0981 102.7930 0158553 248.6148 109.6861 16.36159787124882
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running only 11.5 minutes late against
    yesterday's prediction. SpaceCom has still not renewed its decay
    estimate. I now predict that this will decay near southern apex far to
    the S of Australia on the penultimate of these SatEvo predicted orbits.
    With the continuing trend for the predicted decay to drift later, this
    could yet survive until the 7th UTC.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
    http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sun May 06 2001 - 09:08:28 PDT