Updated USA 129 elements; manoeuvre alert continues

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@home.com)
Date: Wed May 09 2001 - 17:36:19 PDT

  • Next message: Ted Molczan: "USA 129 stlll on-time on 2001 May 10 at 02:37 UTC"

    Observations made late on 2001 May 09 have been reported by Bram Dorreman,
    Russell Eberst and Rainer Kracht. Here is the updated orbit:
    USA 129         15.0  3.0  0.0  5.1 v
    1 24680U 96072A   01129.89885417  .00020907  00000-0  31872-3 0    02
    2 24680  97.9334 192.8628 0476361 356.6127   3.1942 14.81190194    07
    The size of yesterday's manoeuvre was somewhat greater than I had estimated
    based on the early observations, but still not the major maneouvre. The
    maneouvre appears to have been primarily a perigee-raising and an increase in
    It is still possible for the major re-boost to occur over the next 24 h.
    If the object has manoeuvred subsequent to the above elements' epoch, then it
    will be running significantly late and off course. How much depends on the time
    elapsed since the manoeuvre.
    To aid observers in preparing to search for the object post-maneouvre, I have
    computed the approximate orbit that would have resulted had the manoeuvre
    occurred at the first perigee following tonight's final pass tracked from
    1 70100U          01129.96579282  .00020000  00000-0  31348-3 0    06
    2 70100  97.9334 192.9293 0508000 356.3944   0.1000 14.74000000    04
    I recommend plotting both of the above elements. If no manoeuvre has occurred,
    then the object will be on the path of the first elset. If a maneouvre has
    occurred, then the latest it could arrive will be given by the second elset.
    Ted Molczan
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed May 09 2001 - 17:38:41 PDT