Decay watch: 2001 May 18

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri May 18 2001 - 11:31:18 PDT

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    SpaceCom has started to post decay warnings for Molniya 3-21.
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #14313 = 83- 90 A = Molniya 3-21
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 18 16:53     May 21 15:30 +-2d        32.3 S    40.6 W
    SatEvo     May 18 18:20     May 22 06:30 +-1.5d
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-21                                     7135 x 90 km
    1 14313U 83090A   01138.63619850  .48250553  54342-5  19285-2 0  5351
    2 14313  62.1093  95.6780 3525736 269.1443 288.3276  8.69476005 79580
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Molniya 3-21                                     6648 x 83 km
    1 14313U 83090A   01139.01429806  .47708292  37136-1  12255-2 0 95314
    2 14313  62.1235  95.1716 3369061 269.2973  52.7259  9.02712054 79622
    Molniya 3-21                                     6195 x 83 km
    1 14313U 83090A   01139.34134535  .51634770  43224-1  12453-2 0 95311
    2 14313  62.1235  94.7186 3211055 269.3424  54.4070  9.35168768 79655
    Molniya 3-21                                     5747 x 83 km
    1 14313U 83090A   01139.65700886  .56084701  51162-1  12680-2 0 95313
    2 14313  62.1235  94.2543 3047656 269.3886  56.1546  9.69132953 79687
    Molniya 3-21                                     5305 x 83 km
    1 14313U 83090A   01139.96156302  .61189168  61089-1  12942-2 0 95314
    2 14313  62.1235  93.7780 2878095 269.4360  57.9774 10.04802566 79711
    
    Note: The prediction is very uncertain, made more so by the possibility
    of partial breakup well before the final orbit.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri May 18 2001 - 14:12:24 PDT