Decay watch: 2001 May 23

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed May 23 2001 - 11:45:10 PDT

  • Next message: Harro Zimmer: "Decay Forecast Meteor 1-29 RB"

    Yesterday's update on the decay of #26774, the Progress M1-6 rocket,
    gave a SatEvo-predicted decay time of May 22 15:25 +-18h. In fact, the
    stated uncertainty should have been +-30m. Today's update for the other
    current decayers follows...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11252 = 79-  5 B = Meteor 1-29 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 23 12:24     May 24 12:24 +-16h       67.6 S   128.8 E
    SatEvo     May 23 18:20     May 24 06:57 +-4h        37.0 N   173.4 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Meteor 1-29 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  6.1       176 x 163 km
    1 11252U 79005B   01143.55315650  .04370168  24388-5  40782-3 0  8218
    2 11252  97.2143 177.3696 0010014 240.5150 119.5152 16.38650603228454
    
    SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page.
    (..ends)
    Meteor 1-29 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  6.1       144 x 137 km
    1 11252U 79005B   01144.16225863  .20879777  46086+0  27450-3 0 98219
    2 11252  97.2108 178.0686 0005211 237.9509 121.9984 16.49443479228557
    Meteor 1-29 r    3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  6.1       135 x 129 km
    1 11252U 79005B   01144.22287509  .39196424  17996+1  30852-3 0 98211
    2 11252  97.2099 178.1389 0003926 237.6928 122.2692 16.52824070228565
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running only 4.5 sec late against 
    yesterday's SatEvo prediction. I have this decaying over the Pacific
    Ocean following the northbound equator crossing at the end of the
    final SatEvo-predicted rev, above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26502 = 00- 49 F = Raduga-1 5 aux motor
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   May 23 03:41     May 23 03:32 +-7m         6.2 S    38.5 E
    SatEvo     May 23 18:35     May 23 03:27 +-15m       10.0 N    24.5 E
    
    Final elset:
    Raduga-1 5 aux motor                             399 x 68 km
    1 26502U 00049F   01143.13075944  .99999999  78098-5  43596-3 0  3881
    2 26502  46.5151 146.5883 0250142 146.1163 302.5571 16.14792254  8800
    
    Note: The latest elset shows it running 7.4 min early against 
    yesterday's SatEvo prediction. I show it decaying southbound over
    central Africa soon after perigee on this final orbit.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed May 23 2001 - 11:47:11 PDT