Decaying Raduga 33

From: Mike McCants (mmccants@io.com)
Date: Sun May 02 2004 - 15:27:36 EDT

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Raduga 33 elsets from OIG (same as what Ted has posted):

1 23794U 96010A   04123.36218493  .37883177  11599-4  23876-2 0  4836
2 23794  47.7389 126.9680 3374789  91.4355 320.4106  8.97681482 71901

1 23794U 96010A   04123.46837407  .58490862  11634-4  41863-2 0  4888
2 23794  47.7709 126.7186 3314068  91.8175 305.6151  9.09301630 71918

1 23794U 96010A   04123.68481827  .46116749  12130-4  32954-2 0  4893
2 23794  47.7322 126.3169 3220235  92.1630 301.2643  9.28331103 71937

These elsets seem somewhat inconsistent.  There is always the
possibility that a piece of Raduga 33 might break loose and lower
the drag.  The flashes observed by Ed this morning indicate that
this had not happened before this morning.

I believe that the drag on the second elset (that ted used) is too
high and the drag on the first and third elsets is too low.

Under the assumption that the drag coefficient has not changed,
I have generated the following predicted elsets using my numerical
integration program.

1 23794U 96010A   04123.68598831  .54300298  00000-0  00000+0 0    02
2 23794  47.7574 126.3351 3235548  91.9840 304.7365  9.25799954    00
1 23794U 96010A   04123.79248675  .56279859  00000-0  00000+0 0    02
2 23794  47.7583 126.1165 3177308  92.1844 303.9171  9.37787389    05
1 23794U 96010A   04123.89761179  .58285198  00000-0  00000+0 0    07
2 23794  47.7584 125.8957 3118030  92.3888 303.0794  9.50041856    07
1 23794U 96010A   04124.00138491  .59637185  00000-0  00000+0 0    04
2 23794  47.7576 125.6724 3058394  92.5945 302.2334  9.62419329    08
1 23794U 96010A   04124.10381850  .61456019  00000-0  00000+0 0    02
2 23794  47.7580 125.4469 2998087  92.8021 301.3750  9.75009650    04
1 23794U 96010A   04124.20491088  .63918802  00000-0  00000+0 0    03
2 23794  47.7587 125.2203 2936337  93.0094 300.4973  9.87933058    06
1 23794U 96010A   04124.30466626  .66321349  00000-0  00000+0 0    01
2 23794  47.7586 124.9926 2873370  93.2159 299.6035 10.01164882    01

This generates perigee passage times that are about 6 to 7 minutes
later than the times posted by Ted today.

Mike McCants

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