Re: NASA Quotes Thomas Fly on ISS - Jupiter conjunction/transit/eclipse

From: Thomas Fly (tfly@alumni.caltech.edu)
Date: Thu May 13 2004 - 11:22:09 EDT

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    Thanks all!
    
    "Naturally," this morning in South Carolina, it's completely overcast, with a
    visibility ceiling of about 1300 feet :-(  Thunderstorms have been in the
    forecast about all week, though it was clear for a while yesterday, after
    sunset.
    
    I'd hoped to drive about 150 miles round-trip to Asheville, NC, now that I'm
    finally setup for video:
    http://iss-transit.sourceforge.net/firewire-webcam.html
    Well, that's 5 gallons of gas saved, I guess!
    
    For those who didn't know, this (June) month's Sky & Telescope has a one-page
    article, written by Stuart Goldman, about my ISS Transit email alert service.
    I've been threatening for a while now to scan it in, and post it on the URL
    above.
    
    Dr. Tony Phillips (better known for his SpaceWeather site) actually contacted me
    in reference to making a transit map- he's involved with helping 600 5th-grade
    students in Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana and Florida to see the ISS, and
    learn more about astronomy & science.
    
    Patrick Wiggins wrote:
    
    > Those of us here in the western US have a chance to see ISS "eclipse" Jupiter
    the next night (the 14th).
    
    > Now if only the weather will cooperate.
    
    Jupiter "encounters" (my preferred term, which implies 1) that due to the
    typical accuracy of TLEs, it'll take some luck to actually observe a transit;
    and 2) it'll also take some luck to capture a frame showing a planetary transit
    / conjunction / occultation / eclipse by the ISS, unless you have access to a
    1000 fps camera, like Roland Stalder) will also be visible in other places.  One
    orbit after the eastern U.S. pass tonight, there will also be a visible pass
    that will go through areas of the Midwest; and 4 orbits prior to the eastern
    U.S. pass, Torsten Edelmann may have a shot at it in Germany.
    http://mysite.freeserve.com/astro2/astro2_image_67.htm
    http://iss-transit.sourceforge.net/subscribers/RolandStalder.html
    http://www.wonderplanets.de/latest.html
    
    Ron Robisch wrote:
    
    > My question then is this:  Should I go with the slightly early orbital
    elements, the slightly later orbital elements, or should I interpolate between
    the two times, in order to get the most accurate elements for the time of the
    transit?
    
    Just go with your transit reports! If you're not getting them via email for some
    reason, they're also online at:
    http://iss-transit.sourceforge.net/transits/matches-840p.txt and
    http://iss-transit.sourceforge.net/transits/matches-844p.txt
    
    Typically, NASA's MCC updates their ISS ephemeris page on Mondays and Thursdays.
    Assuming that they update it today, I'll generate updated reports.
    
    In specific reply to your question, however, use the TLE that precedes the
    event.
    
    Arnold Barmettler (CalSKY) uses the same MCC ephemeris as I do, except when the
    event is due to occur in less than about 24 hours, in which case he uses the
    latest OIG TLE.  I have some evidence that typically, the MCC TLE (derived from
    the results of a numerical integration) gives better positional accuracy (unless
    the prediction is more than 3 days old, or so), though the OIG update may give
    better timing accuracy for predictions that are more than a day or two old
    (which is a bit curious, since you'd think there'd be a direct correlation
    between timing & position).  In any case, one can use Arnold's CalSKY website
    (and perhaps Chris Peat's Heavens-Above) to complement the email alerts that I
    send out:
    http://iss-transit.sourceforge.net/UsingYourTransitReport.html#CalSKY
    
    For anyone who's able to record such a transit, it's vital for later analysis to
    document the precise location (latitude & longitude, to 4 decimal places if
    possible) and time of the event, and the MCC & OIG TLEs that would apply.
    (CalSKY has a TLE link which will give the TLE used in its computation.)
    
    Tom
    
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