RE: Fragmentation of 91082A (DMSP B5D2-6)

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Thu May 27 2004 - 13:49:34 EDT

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    I wrote:
    
    > 91082A's orbit is sun-synchronous, so its visibility window 
    > is seasonal - during the Northern and Southern hemispheres' 
    > respective winters.
    > 
    > Weather permitting, it would be worthwhile performing a 
    > planar search for debris.
    
    And minutes later, Greg Roberts reported three positions observed last night:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/May-2004/0345.html
    
    Here they are, along with Paul Gabriel's of May 03:
    
    21798 91 082A   8305 G 20040503015037570 27 35 0734628-284686 26
    21798 91 082A   0433 P 20040526175532000 56 15 1214399+033436 39 R+071 05
    21798 91 082A   0433 P 20040526175631400 56 15 1150235+200649 39 R+073 05
    21798 91 082A   0433 P 20040526175746600 56 15 1128303+332954 39 R+076 05
    
    What these numbers mean: http://www.satobs.org/position/IODformat.html
    
    It was 57 s early and within 0.1 deg of the predicted track of 42 d old
    elements, after compensating for Earth's rotation.
    
    In my earlier post, I mistakenly stated that Paul observed it 0.22 deg off track
    after compensating for its 24 s early arrival. That was the actual cross-track
    difference; compensating for Earth's rotation reduces it to 0.08 deg.
    
    Assuming Paul and Greg observed the same object, which I suspect they did, the
    change in its orbit was fairly small.
    
    Here are updated elements, based upon the above observations:
    
    DMSP B5D2-6      6.4  1.7  0.0  6.6 v 5.43
    1 21798U 91082A   04147.68193666  .00000150  00000-0  76795-4 0    05
    2 21798  98.6774 169.0941 0011441 256.3294 103.6607 14.15552118    08
    
    WRMS residuals = 0.029 deg.
    
    Description of 2-line elements: http://www.satobs.org/element.html
    
    I propagated the 42 day old elset to the ascending node prior to Greg's
    observation, and adjusted only the RAAN, mean anomaly and mean motion.
    
    The fragmentation had only a small effect on 91082A's orbit, and Greg observed
    it to be about as bright as usual, so I now believe that the fragmentation was
    relatively minor; perhaps the rupture of a hydrazine tank, or the explosion of a
    battery, as suggested by one correspondent. Most of the resulting debris would
    likely be too small to observe.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
    
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