Re: North Korea announces satellite launch May 31-June 11

From: Marco Langbroek via Seesat-l <>
Date: Mon, 29 May 2023 13:19:46 +0200

Hi Bob a.o.,

Indeed, after a few hours refreshing sleep and your comment, I am turning to an 
alternative option of direct insertion into a 97.2 deg declined sun-synchronous 
orbit, with the 2nd stage after separation doing a dogleg to avoid landing on 
the Philippines or Taiwan.

This does have a clear risk however of, in case things go wrong, hardware 
landing on the PRC, Taiwan or the Philippines.

It does result in a sun-synchronous orbit very similar to that of KMS 3-2 and 
KMS 4, but the route to get there is different and more risky to the neighbours.

I will update my blogpost after I have made some new maps.

- Marco

Op 29-5-2023 om 11:06 schreef Bob Christy:
> Hello Marco
> This is an oddity of a trajectory.
> Previous Sohae launches deposited the first stage and fairing off South Korea, 
> allowing SK to recover parts of them. I causes me to think that this first-stage 
> dog-leg might be aimed at dropping them into a relatively out of reach area.
> Don't discount a sun-sychronous orbit though. The third stage of the earlier 
> launches also followed a dog-leg in order to avoid flying over Chinese waters 
> and Taiwan.
> <>
> If this is indeed aimed at sun-synch orbit and with LTDN similar to the earlier 
> ones then launch time is likely to be around 21:00-22:00 UTC
> Bob
>> On 29 May 2023, at 02:53, Marco Langbroek via Seesat-l 
>> <> wrote:
>> Op 29-5-2023 om 02:50 schreef Marco Langbroek via Seesat-l:
>>> This set of Navigational Warnings has appeared that is likely related, as 
>>> they match a launch from Sohae and are for the indicated period (the UTC 
>>> dates correspond to local dates May 31-June 11)
>> More, including a map, here:

>> - Marco

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