Shenzhou 5 - search elements and visibility

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Tue Oct 14 2003 - 21:35:09 EDT

  • Next message: Matson, Robert: "Shenzhou 5 from California"

    Various news media are reporting that the Shenzhou 5 was launched on 2003 Oct 15
    at 09:00 Beijing Time = 01:00 UTC of the same date.
    
    If Shenzhou 5 exactly repeats the launch trajectory and orbital manoeuvres of
    Shenzhou 3 and 4, then these search elements should be accurate to within about
    1 min in time, and a fraction of a degree in predicted sky track. Of course, it
    would be prudent to begin observing several minutes early.
    
    
    1. Elliptical Parking Orbit until 2003 Oct 15 at 07:50 UTC
    
    The spacecraft and rocket body will be in nearly same orbit for the first approx
    6 h and 50 m after launch. Below is the search elset of the rocket. My guess is
    that the spacecraft will trail a short distance behind the rocket during this
    period.
     
    Shenzhou 5 r    15.5  3.4  0.0  4.4 d
    1 70000U          03288.67587361  .00788058  82648-5  58603-3 0    31
    2 70000  42.4069  26.2082 0099929 134.5463  16.8336 16.04205144   103
     
    
    2. Circularized Orbit after 2003 Oct 15 at 07:50 UTC
     
    The spacecraft will circularize its orbit as it passes through apogee for the
    5th time, approx 6 h and 50 m after launch, whereupon it will be in this orbit:
    
    Shenzhou 5       7.8  2.5  0.0  5.4 d
    1 70001U          03288.67700930  .00036000  00000-0  19749-3 0    17
    2 70001  42.4080  26.2791 0004797 163.8920 321.6647 15.78791273   101
    
    
    3. Visibility Windows
    
    Observers between about latitude 33 N and 50 N will have fair to excellent
    morning visibility. 
    
    Observers between about latitude 33 S and 50 S will have fair to excellent
    evening visibility.
    
    Less favourable visibility will extend for several degrees outside this range.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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