RE: Shenzhou 5 seen?

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Wed Oct 15 2003 - 02:02:01 EDT

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    Matija Perne wrote,
    
    > At 3:57:00 I noticed a satellite approximately 15 degrees
    > above SSE horizon flying towards east. It was slowly tumbling 
    > and was changing brightness from magnitude 2 or 3 to 
    > invisible and back in about 15 seconds. Could it be Shenzhou 
    > 5 or its rocket?
    
    Congratulations on posting the first observation of an object from this mission,
    less than 3 h after launch.
    
    My search elements for the rocket are in excellent agreement with your
    observation; here is the ephemeris for the pass that you observed:
    
    15/10/ 3  03:00 - 04:53 UTC  J2000.0  EL > 15  Matija Perne
    Shenzhou 5 r   03000B   70004   Bull =    3    Matija Perne
    
      TIME      %I   Mvd    AZ  EL     R.A.       DEC      FE    VANG  RANGE   ALT
    --------    --  ----   ---  --   --------  ---------  ----   ----  -----  -----
    03:56:40 LU 54   3.5   176  17   06:42:24  -27:19:04   3.1   0.63    696    231
    03:56:48 LP 50   3.6   171  17   07:05:17  -26:35:50   3.1   0.65    686    230
    03:57:00    43   3.8   163  17   07:38:12  -25:13:36   3.0   0.66    681    229
    03:57:11    38   4.1   156  17   08:07:40  -23:40:08   2.9   0.64    687    229
    03:57:23    32   4.4   149  16   08:38:07  -21:44:40   2.8   0.61    704    228
    03:57:35    27   4.8   142  15   09:06:06  -19:42:49   2.7   0.57    731    227
    03:57:48    22   5.2   135  14   09:33:16  -17:32:02   2.6   0.51    770    226
    03:58:03    17   5.7   128  12   10:00:33  -15:11:07   2.5   0.45    828    225
    03:58:20    13   6.4   121  11   10:26:40  -12:50:49   2.4   0.38    904    224
    03:58:40    10   7.1   115   9   10:51:54  -10:34:39   2.3   0.30   1006    223
    
    Since the object was tumbling, it almost certainly was the rocket.
    
    Shenzhou should have been trailing behind a short distance, but could have been
    too faint to see at the time.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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