Shenzhou 5: additional pieces catalogued

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Thu Oct 16 2003 - 09:09:26 EDT

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    Shenzhou 5's orbital module appears to have been catalogued:
    
    1 28049U 03045G   03289.17493644  .00175015  00000-0  95377-3 0    56
    2 28049  42.4289  23.1889 0001854 247.7925 191.5747 15.78625755   183
    
    1 28049U 03045G   03289.06753963  .00303103  00000-0  16268-2 0    37
    2 28049  42.4292  23.8502 0001859 247.8548 300.4076 15.78603417   168
    
    1 28049U 03045G   03289.03519676  .00135029  00000-0  74165-3 0    14
    2 28049  42.4271  24.0504 0001847 249.6488 114.5777 15.78574193   160
    
    Also, debris in rather elliptical orbits, apparently similar to that found after
    Shenzhou 1, but not Shenzhou 2, 3 & 4, has returned on this mission:
                                                                194 X 432
    1 28045U 03045C   03288.65756052  .10737333  76147-5  77040-2 0    19
    2 28045  42.6001  26.0501 0178040 145.9135 215.3317 15.89505724    93
    
                                                                194 X 450
    1 28046U 03045D   03288.40521052  .09777416  75376-5  72701-2 0    19
    2 28046  42.5412  27.7067 0191154 149.6856 211.5058 15.86374945    58
    
                                                                202 X 499
    1 28047U 03045E   03288.59858718  .06723565  75574-5  70803-2 0    16
    2 28047  42.2541  27.1893 0220966 126.2376 235.9125 15.76132015    90
    
                                                                203 X 533
    1 28048U 03045F   03288.40919366  .06429926  75357-5  73822-2 0    11
    2 28048  42.2728  28.2532 0245114 121.5841 240.9192 15.69973670    66
    
    These objects were ejected at a velocity in excess of 50 m/s about the time of
    orbital insertion, when the 2nd stage separated.
    
    There appear to be twice as many compared to Shenzhou 1:
    
                                                                196 X 475
    1 25957U 99061B   99324.30213289 -.00002584  81796-5 -21370-5 0    17
    2 25957  42.7684  24.7735 0208498 143.0636 218.9194 15.81507095    20
    
                                                                203 X 517
    1 25956U 99061A   99324.30184918 -.00002507  79356-5 -27977-5 0    15
    2 25956  42.4784  25.3766 0233325 119.0699 230.0385 15.72790458    21
    
    Jonathan McDowell's satellite table lists these pieces as "CZ-2F part".
    
    Did Shenzhou 5 eject twice as many, or have two objects each have been
    catalogued twice?
    
    After Shenzhou 1, I had doubted that they were real objects at all, but with the
    appearance of objects in similar orbits from the Shenzhou 5 launch, I no longer
    have doubts.
    
    I have found that one of them may have been ejected at the time of orbital
    insertion, from the object that appears to me to have been the rocket body:
    
    1 25957U 99061B   99324.48312468  .01120080  83940-5  83715-3 0    29
    2 25957  42.5973  23.8808 0096522 132.0774 228.8342 16.04716322    53
    
    So far, I have been unable to link the debris to the object that appears to me
    to have been the spacecraft:
    
    1 25957U 99061B   99324.60834382  .00606827  83585-5  56001-3 0    61
    2 25957  42.5956  23.0886 0095292 134.3737 226.4995 16.02245812    78
    
    I caution that many, if not most, analysts believe that the spacecraft was in
    the 16.04 rev/d orbit, and the rocket 16.02 rev/d orbit. I can find facts that
    favour both.
    
    Note that the inclination of half the objects is slightly greater than that of
    the payload and rocket body, and half are slightly lower. Note also the
    differences in eccentricity and mean motion. Their orbital planes also are
    shifted relative the rocket body.
    
    Their elliptical orbits remind me of the objects ejected from Zenits, such as
    these from the Cosmos 1844 launch:
    
    1987-041C    18410 CIS     104.9   71.0   1142     839
    1987-041D    18411 CIS     104.7   71.0   1123     841
    1987-041E    18412 CIS     104.7   71.0   1125     836
    1987-041F    18476 CIS     105.0   71.0   1149     838
    
    NASA/OIG lists them as SL-16 debris; Jonathan McDowell's satellite table lists
    them as "sep motor covers".
    
    The pieces from the Shenzhou launches decay very rapidly, suggesting that they
    are low density debris. Could they be separation motor covers? If so, why
    present only after Shenzhou 1 and 5? Perhaps understanding the debris will help
    settle the question of the orbits of the Shenzhou 1 spacecraft and rocket body.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
    
    
    
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