Updated elements

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Sun Oct 03 2004 - 10:46:04 EDT

  • Next message: David Brierley: "DMB Obs October 1"

    03790B continues toward decay, sometime in December or January.
    
    03790B           0.0  0.0  0.0  3.5 v
    1 90019U 03790B   04277.37325858  .00532341  00000-0  78477-3 0    06
    2 90019  27.3066 310.3119 0777964 296.1803  56.0793 14.47087917    00
    Arc 2004 Oct 01.39 - 03.40, WRMS residuals = 0.009 deg
    
    I a beginning to doubt that Lacrosse 4 manoeuvred lower. A longer observation
    arc is required to be certain, but I suspect that the lower altitude is due to a
    large increase in the rate of decay since about Sep 22 UTC.
    
    Here is my latest solution assuming normal rate of decay:
    
    1 26473U 00047A   04277.40453288  .00000100  00000-0  18903-4 0    06
    2 26473  67.9886  59.7982 0008016 120.5347 239.6571 14.64134973    00
    
    Here is the high rate of decay solution:
    
    1 26473U 00047A   04277.40453910  .00001761  00000-0  33401-3 0    01
    2 26473  68.0041  59.8102 0005839 314.5072  45.5576 14.64138631    04
    
    If additional observations from last night are posted, then I will revisit this
    analysis.
    
    If there has been a jump in the rate of decay, then it would have to be due to
    the spacecraft entering an attitude that increases its ballistic coefficient by
    about an order of magnitude.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
    
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