Kevin Fetter wrote: > Might it possibly be the decay, of the Proton-K Auxiliary Motor > > http://www.reentrynews.com/28197.html Quite possibly. The above web site is operated by The Aerospace Corporation, which maintains some expertise related to satellite orbital decay. The object in question was one of two auxiliary motors from the launch of Raduga 1-7 The above web page predicted the re-entry time of the Proton-K Auxiliary Motor as 10 OCT 2004 @ 19:56 UTC ± 20 minutes. Based on the final set of orbital elements issued by USSTRATCOM: 1 28197U 04010E 04284.76891120 1.00000000 11868-4 35086-2 0 2079 2 28197 46.9917 180.1065 0372345 66.0398 297.2808 15.77133512 4838 I found that it could have passed within range of Fort Wayne, Indiana (where the video was shot) within the above prediction window. Culmination would have been in the NNW, at 20:12 UTC (4:12 PM local daylight time). WANE-TV, in Fort Wayne, which originated the story, reported that the "pointed the camera North-Northwest" http://www.wanetv.com/Global/story.asp?S=2415755&nav=0RYnRsHf excerpts: "(WANE-TV Fort Wayne, IN October 11, 2004) Brandon McBroom used the family videocam to tape a strange looking object in the Sunday sky. He pulled over in the Croninger Elementary parking lot and pointed the camera North-Northwest." I will attempt to find out the time the video was shot. If it was within a few minutes of 20:12 UTC (4:12 PM EDT), then that would make it pretty much certain that it was the Proton-K Auxiliary Motor in question. I note that USSTRATCOM predicted decay at 19:12 UTC +/- 17 min, 44 minutes earlier than The Aerospace Corp prediction, and about 60 min before the predicted time of the Fort Wayne pass. Perhaps this was an earlier USSTRATCOM prediction. Decays are extremely difficult to predict with certainty; however, the object in question had been in a highly eccentric orbit, with a very low perigee, a combination that makes it somewhat easier to narrow the time of decay, which should begin about the time the object passes below about 95 - 100 km, as it approaches perigee. At the epoch of the final orbital element set, less than 2 h before decay, the object's orbit was 97 X 597 km. Its latitude of perigee can be computed from the inclination 46.9917 deg, and the argument of perigee, 66.0398 deg, per the above orbital elements: latitude of perigee = arc sin [sin(46.9917) * sin(66.0398)] = 41.9 deg. Fort Wayne is at latitude 41.1 deg, very near perigee; therefore, well placed to have had a chance of seeing the decay. I have appended the ephemeris for Fort Wayne, which states the time as UTC. Ted Molczan 10/10/ 4 19:00 - 24:00 UTC J2000.0 EL > 0 Fort Wayne 04010E 04010E 28197 Bull = 207 Fort Wayne SGP4 Age = 0.1 d TIME %I Mv? AZ EL R.A. DEC FE VANG RANGE ALT -------- -- ---- --- -- -------- --------- ---- ---- ----- ----- 20:09:50 11 6.0 254 0 10:31:42 -12:22:10 7.3 0.09 982 73 20:11:16 13 3.8 269 10 10:24:12 05:32:13 8.0 0.54 357 73 20:11:30 17 3.1 278 15 10:15:13 15:15:50 8.1 0.97 266 73 20:11:38 21 2.7 286 18 10:05:24 24:09:29 8.2 1.42 219 73 20:11:43 25 2.4 294 21 09:55:32 31:40:47 8.3 1.82 194 73 20:11:47 30 2.2 302 23 09:43:49 39:03:01 8.5 2.19 177 73 20:11:50 34 2.1 309 25 09:31:17 45:23:31 8.6 2.47 167 73 20:11:53 39 2.0 318 26 09:13:22 52:19:00 8.7 2.72 159 73 20:11:56 45 1.9 327 27 08:46:18 59:31:47 8.8 2.90 154 73 20:11:59 51 1.9 336 28 08:02:44 66:27:20 9.0 2.97 152 73 20:12:02 57 1.9 346 27 06:49:57 72:03:48 9.1 2.92 154 73 20:12:05 63 2.0 355 26 05:01:17 74:47:14 9.3 2.75 159 73 20:12:08 68 2.1 3 25 03:10:28 73:46:11 9.4 2.50 167 73 20:12:11 72 2.2 10 23 01:54:35 70:20:27 9.5 2.22 177 73 20:12:14 76 2.4 16 22 01:09:05 66:09:16 9.6 1.94 190 73 20:12:18 79 2.6 23 19 00:34:00 60:41:59 9.7 1.61 209 73 20:12:23 83 2.9 30 17 00:09:34 54:47:12 9.8 1.27 236 73 20:12:29 86 3.2 36 14 23:53:01 49:05:47 9.8 0.96 272 73 20:12:37 88 3.6 41 11 23:40:36 43:23:08 9.9 0.69 324 73 20:12:48 90 4.0 46 9 23:31:24 37:51:44 10.0 0.46 399 73 20:13:04 91 4.5 51 6 23:24:51 32:35:09 10.0 0.29 512 73 20:13:30 92 5.2 55 3 23:20:46 27:23:33 10.2 0.17 701 73 20:14:15 93 6.1 59 0 23:20:06 22:20:15 10.5 0.09 1033 74 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe/Unsubscribe info, Frequently Asked Questions, SeeSat-L archive: http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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