RE: Possible satellite collision Oct 16 00:56UTC

From: Chris Peat via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Thu, 15 Oct 2020 08:56:07 +0200
Hi all,
We also have information and graphics of this potential collision on Heavens-Above at this address:

https://heavens-above.com/CloseEncounterDetails.aspx?satid1=19826&satid2=36123&mjd=59138.0393568287&

Our prediction is for a miss distance of 430 meters, but we only use the standard TLE orbital propagation, so the uncertainties are quite large.

As you can see from the graphic, this would be an almost "head on" collision and at an altitude of about 1000 km, the debris pieces could remain in orbit and be a threat to other satellites for a very long time.

Best regards,
Chris Peat

-----Original Message-----
From: Seesat-l [mailto:seesat-l-bounces+chris.peat=dlr.de_at_satobs.org] On Behalf Of Marshall Eubanks via Seesat-l
Sent: 14 October 2020 17:33
To: Björn Gimle
Cc: Seesat-L
Subject: Re: Possible satellite collision Oct 16 00:56UTC

On 2020-10-14 10:16, Björn Gimle wrote:
> Thanks for the heads-up ! If we have any members in Tierra Del Fuego
> they can see the two objects meet.

That would of course be very interesting - but any debris jets would 
also be visible later on and would need to be characterized as best as 
possible.

Regards
Marshall

> 
> 13 degrees above horizon from southern tip of Argentina, sunlit and on
> a dark sky !
> Prediction map from HeavenSat : https://tinyurl.com/head-on-cz-3
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------
> Björn Gimle, COSPAR 5919
> 59.2617 N, 18.6169 E, 51 m
> Satellite observation formats described:
> http://www.satobs.org/position/IODformat.html
> ---------------------------------------------------------
> 
> Den ons 14 okt. 2020 kl 05:09 skrev Marshall Eubanks via Seesat-l
> <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>:
> 
>> This seems relevant.
>> 
>> LeoLabs, Inc.
>> 
>> We are monitoring a very high risk conjunction between two large
>> defunct
>> objects in LEO. Multiple data points show miss distance <25m and Pc
>> between 1% and 20%. Combined mass of both objects is ~2,800kg.
>> 
>> Object 1: 19826
>> Object 2: 36123
>> TCA: Oct 16 00:56UTC
>> Event altitude: 991km
>> 
>> An image of the satellite tracks is available here:
>> https://twitter.com/LeoLabs_Space/status/1316147305125490694
>> 
>> Regards
>> Marshall Eubanks
>> _______________________________________________
>> Seesat-l mailing list
>> http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
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Received on Thu Oct 15 2020 - 01:57:39 UTC

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