This is a very quick and dirty try to determine a trajectory to positions I reported earlier: http://satobs.org/seesat/Sep-2013/0183.html It uses the SGP4 model to fit eccentric orbits (e=0.3 to 0.7) with very high mean motions (16 to 17 revs/day) to the observations. The link below shows a plot propagating those orbits forward in time; the green polygon is the possible impact area from Ted's message. https://db.tt/MxzO1xCw The SGP4 model is obviously not designed to propagate sub orbital trajectories but it was the quickest way to estimate some parameters without doing proper numerical integrations. The plot does show that the object in Jan Hattenbach's images was over the Atlantic East of the Caribbean and at altitudes ranging from 1500 to 1800 km. The range from La Palma was between 4000 and 5000 km. Furthermore, some of these trajectories overfly the area from Ted's message, so it is indeed likely that that may have been the impact point. My fitting software did not allow for orbits with mean motions higher than 17 revs/day, but I have the impression that higher mean motions would shift the impact point closer to the area described in Ted's message. Regards, Cees _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
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